Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Decision 2016

I'll be updating this blog tonight with election returns and data crunching, but first I have to run my slightly under the weather pup, Fennel,  to the vet.

Just barely settled in here....

FL looks good; unless we see a tsunami in the Panhandle for Trump, it's looking good.

PA and NH aren't too shabby either.

NV turnout is about 70....it was 81% in 2012....slightly smaller turnout doesn't necessarily hurt HRC...indeed, it makes those early votes that were banked very useful (field and ground game matter).

And yikes, FL is tight and the panhandle is not reporting. One not so fabulous stat from the exit polls: folks who mark the economy as the number issue favor HRC 50 to 43 but trump kills for voters who mark immigration as the number one issue.

Florida will be a nail biting photo finish. Romney's highest vote margins came in places like Okaloosa, Collier, Clay, Lee and St. John's counties, in the panhandle. These counties have barely reported vote results, while the high performing urban Democratic counties are 80-90 in.

Those urban counties are bigger, but we are looking at a nail biter of 2000 year proportions, I fear.

With the Panhandle coming in FL is now looking like a close to lost cause.

OH, on the other hand, is looking more hopeful. Who would've guessed it. FL latino turnout was huge but african american turnout fell off, which is what is given us the bad vote spread here.

Counties to watch for TRUMP and CLINTON (based on 2012)

Butler, which Romney carried by 42,944
Warren, which Romney carried by 42,719
Cleremont which Romney carried by 33,193
Delaware which Romney carried by 22,849

HRC must do very well in Cleveland (Cuyahoga) where Obama cashed in a 236,478 vote margin and Franklin (Columbus) which Obama carried by 117,713.

African American turnout is crucial for HRC to carry the Buckeye state....

At this point, HRC will win popular vote by 3.5 but may well lose electoral college.

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