tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19595978953357679322024-03-12T16:31:07.655-07:00The Data Driven BeltwayThoughts on politics, policy and the Internet.Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-91671011309430730932020-03-02T18:58:00.002-08:002020-03-03T16:36:29.929-08:00Progressive? Yes. Bernie? No.I've worked on campaigns or in public policy for...egad...over two decades.<br />
<br />
I'm a progressive, not a moderate. I want everyone to have health care and I want rapid action on climate change and a better tax base.<br />
<br />
But I don't want Senator Bernie Sanders.<br />
<br />
Why, some will ask.<br />
<br />
Well, briefly, here is why.<br />
<br />
1) Sanders doesn't own progressive plans. His plans are simple; easy; no nice person will have to sacrifice anything, ever. Only a couple dozen billionaires will need to pay more taxes, don't worry about it...<br />
<br />
Well, that's not how the real m****r f*****g world works. This is worth repeating. This is NOT how the real m****r f*****g world works. <br />
<br />
Change is complicated and there is no plan, ever, without unintended consequences or some degree of sacrifice. And if we want European style programs (I do) I must expect European levels of taxation. ON ME, TOO. Yes, my taxes will need to rise. There is no free lunch.<br />
<br />
2) Sanders' health care plan is massively underestimating the real costs. He isn't even considering how to deal with some of the difficulties in quickly trashing all private insurance, including what to do with the 2 MILLION job losses, turning some small cities into Flint Michigan overnight, the damage to rural hospitals or how we'll tell doctors and nurses they'll be taking BIG pay cuts. We can get to universal coverage but it will, in the real world, be hard as hell.<br />
<br />
Better idea: Get uninsured folks covered with Medicare now and transition away from all private health insurance. that would be more popular and would allow us to gradually shift costs and build consensus for the plan. And that would give us time to actually study how to do this.<br />
<br />
Remember, the ACA was much easier to pull off and we TOTALLY screwed up the implementation. TOTALLY. We couldn't even get the website to work. And it cost more than we thought it would. A LOT MORE. In particular, Sanders vastly overestimates the admin savings. Generally, the government has a hard time doing admin cheaply. I don't like that but that doesn't make it less true. So let's not lie about it.<br />
<br />
3) Sanders' staff, his Senate staff, from my personal experience, were awful. I don't mean a bit young or naive. Not to put too fine a gloss on it, they sucked. They didn't know the issues and were not especially interested in learning about them in any serious way. For a guy who has been on the Hill in Congress, for 37 years, that's just not OK. You MUST have good staff.<br />
<br />
4) Sanders has neither a clue nor the inclination to build coalitions or to talk to people who DISagree with him. The President in the US is a PROFOUNDLY WEAK EXECUTIVE. You need coalitions to pass laws through Congress and you have to compromise and work a lot of angles. Sanders never once did this as a Senator or House member. He passed no major laws and all this "amendment bernie" stuff is mostly smoke and mirrors. Most of his amendments were at best very minor and often came with a lot of consensus. You don't find things in which he had to work HARD to pass on the floor.<br />
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5) Sanders cares about the adulation of his supporters, not the issues. Remember the mess the Veteran's Admin was in, where lots of Veterans were not getting the care they needed? Who was the chair of the Veteran's committee in the Senate? Sanders. Was he warned about the issues? Yes. Did he bother to hold hearings? No. He isn't interested in the hard work of being a Senator, and was certainly not interested in admitting to the public he screwed the pooch on HIS responsibility to be a good committee chair.<br />
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6) Sander's ideas for combating climate change are naive. I worked on renewable energy policy for years; Sanders doesn't really understand how the lights stay on, and he has clue zero about what the federal government can legally demand. Fact: TEXAS has 28 time the wind power on the grid that New England has and we didn't get that by calling West Texans anti progressive thugs. We didnt even mention climate change, we focused on the jobs.<br />
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In New England, Sanders can't even convince a farmer he doesn't need an AR-15 to shoot a possum eating the tomato plants. Sanders REFUSES to ever disagree with a supporter or his base, but sometimes we gotta tell hikers "sorry, trees are coming down for a transmission line" or "this wind farm will obstruct your view of that mountain" or "yes, in the short to mid term, your electric bill WILL go up." Clinton got windmills in upstate New York by talking to GOP voting farmers who didn't want them. Sanders doesn't do that.<br />
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7) Sanders encourages the belief in conspiracy theories. The DNC didn't "steal" the 2016 election. Love her or hate her, Clinton won 58% of the primary vote, and nearly 80% of the votes of blacks and hispanics.<br />
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Encouraging the belief in conspiracy theories, allowing sexist "bros" to dominate social media, and refusing to admit any of your colleagues might disagree with you and still be progressive don't make better politics, they add to the general disillusionment of things. That's not leadership, it's populist crap. On this point, Sanders is Trump in liberal clothing.<br />
<br />
8) Promising the moon, and then not delivering, adds to the progressive problem of low voter turnout. And no, don't buy the myth that young voters turn out in droves for Sanders. They never have, and they haven't in the first 4 contests we've seen so far.<br />
<br />
I'm no mother f******g moderate, but I know change takes hard work and big coalitions Sanders is zero for two. He doesn't own progressive values, he screws those of us working for them by lying about how hard they are to implement in the real world and by defecating on the heads of those willing to admit to, and deal with, the complex real world.Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-6487742877711033702018-02-21T19:51:00.001-08:002018-02-26T15:23:51.469-08:00Lobby for your Life: A Gun Violence Action Kit<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">LOBBY FOR YOUR LIFE: A Kit for Effective Action to
Prevent Gun Violence</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">The youthful activism coming out of
Florida in the aftermath of the Parkland shooting could be a game changer in
the fight for sensible gun laws in America. Or, it could fizzle out after a
march or two, as it has after so many mass shootings, leaving us with the
status quo. Progressives tend to flit from issue to issue. What
incenses this morning is forgotten at dinner after it falls three
screens down the Facebook feed. The NRA doesn’t beat us with money (more on
that below) they beat us with discipline. They show up to fight, and they push
their agenda to their base and to Congress <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>every day of every year. We show up a couple
times a year, scream for two days, then move on. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>NRA’s supporters vote, in every election. They
don’t wait for the perfect candidate or storm off in a fit of pique when their
favorite candidate loses a primary. DISCIPLINE. That’s the key. This is a long
battle and we need to be tougher.<br /><br />A complete gun ban is presently impossible due to two recent Supreme Court cases (DC v. Heller and McDonald v. Chicago), in which the right of an individual to possess a gun for self protection was asserted. So, don't focus on the impossible. We can't ban all guns until those two decisions are overturned, which is unlikely for many years. We can ban assault rifles, we can limit ammunition, we can ban bump stocks and we can vastly improve background checks. Focus on the possible.</span></div>
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<br />
THINGS TO READ</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></h2>
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A s<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">ample letter to Congress is here: </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #0563c1;"><a href="http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2013/04/dear-senator.html">http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2013/04/dear-senator.html</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">It's not really about money. While you should pressure elected officials to stop taking campaign
contributions from the NRA, don’t delude yourself. The NRA derives power from conservative culture far
more than from money. The environmental movement often provides significantly more contributions
to politicians in a two-year election cycle than the NRA, but we don’t
have comprehensive climate change legislation to show for it. Money matters,
but it is by no means everything: </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-nra-myth-of-money-monster.html">http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-nra-myth-of-money-monster.html</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
<b><br /></b>Write letters and call, but avoid ineffective online petitions. More on that here:<br />
<a href="http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-letter-is-mightier-than-mouse-click.html">http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-letter-is-mightier-than-mouse-click.html</a></span></div>
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BOOKS TO WONK OUT ON</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><i><br />
The Gun Debate, by Philip J. Cook</i><br />
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Gun-Debate-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/019933899X">https://www.amazon.com/Gun-Debate-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/019933899X </a></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">This is part of the Oxford University <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>”Everyone Needs to Know” series on public
policy issues. It is fact filled and presented in a question/answer format that
makes it a useful reference work. It’s also balanced and level headed
throughout. The numbers here are real, and are presented without any hyperbole.</span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">Gunfight, by Adam
Winkler </span></i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #0563c1;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Gunfight-Battle-Over-Right-America/dp/0393345831">https://www.amazon.com/Gunfight-Battle-Over-Right-America/dp/0393345831 </a></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">A UCLA professor’s thoughtful book on the history of the Second Amendment.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<br />
ORGANIZATIONS TO JOIN AND DONATE TO</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Everytown for Gun Safety.</b> Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s organization, primarily focused on passing sensible gun laws at the state and local level. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #0563c1;"><a href="http://everytown.org/">http://everytown.org/</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #0563c1;"></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">Gabby Gifford's Law Center and PAC.</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> Founded by former Arizona House Representative Gabrielle Giffords after she was wounded in an assassination attempt in Tucson, Arizona on January 8, 2011. The Law Center has good coverage of existing firearms laws, divided by topics. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://giffords.org/">https://giffords.org/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Candidates and Campaigns. </span>Give to our smart crop of candidates running for Congress, and volunteer to make calls and knock on doors. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">KNOW THINE ENEMY</span></span></h2>
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<b></b></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span><span style="font-size: small;"></span><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span><b>The National Rifle Association</b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">. Yes,
this site will raise your blood pressure, but get to know the opposition. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span><a href="https://home.nra.org/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: #0066cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: underline; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">https://home.nra.org/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">LANGUAGE MATTERS</span></h2>
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When <span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> writing a letter to Congress or discussing gun issues with a Congressional
staffer, use language they recognize and relate to. Lobbying is persuasive
communication, it’s not venting personal spleen. When a Congressional staff
member reads your letter, they should not be able to immediately discern if you
are a Democrat or a Republican. If they don’t see you as a latte sipping, Birkenstock
wearing. doobie toking opponent, your words will carry more weight. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;">D<span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">ON’T SAY: Gun Control</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">DO <span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">SAY: Common
Sense Gun Laws</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">DO: <span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Talk in the moral language of the right. </span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> ***</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">“Common Sense gun laws are the right thing to do to uphold FAMILY VALUES.”</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> ***</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">“ Common sense gun laws are the CHRISTIAN thing to do.”</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">***“The Second Amendment refers to a citizen militia. We need to focus on the Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Kill. Children are dying; we have a moral obligation to stop this madness.”</span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">More <span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">on language here.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-color: #fafafa; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 24px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/354093-democrats-have-chance-to-turn-hope-for-stronger-gun-laws-into">http://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/354093-democrats-have-chance-to-turn-hope-for-stronger-gun-laws-into</a></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #fafafa;"><span style="font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span></span></span></span></span></div>
</span><br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-color: #fafafa; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 0%; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 24px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<h2 align="center" style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">BONE UP ON BILLS AND LEARN THE LAWS</span></h2>
<h2 align="center" style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Brady Act of 1993. </b>Named after President
Ronald Reagan’s Press Secretary Jim Brady, who was permanently
disabled in the attempt on Reagan’s life by John Hinckley at the Washington Hilton
in 1981. The Act forbade gun sales to any person who was a “fugitive from
justice." The FBI interpreted the law to
include anyone with an outstanding arrest warrant. Since 1998, when background
checks were formally put in place, 180,000 gun sales to fugitives were
successfully blocked. <br />
<br />
In 2017, the Trump Administration weakened the Brady Act by siding with the
Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Administration, who favor a far weaker regulatory approach than
that of the FBI. Now, the law only blocks gun sales to individuals who have fled across state lines to avoid prosecution.
This removed 500,000 individuals from the background check database.<br />
<br />
The Brady Act further imposed a five day waiting period for gun purchases.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br />
<br />
The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994. </b>This law actually
banned semi-automatic weapons, like the AR15! The law specifically made it
“unlawful for a person to manufacture, transfer, or possess” a semi-automatic
assault weapon. Unfortunately, to garner enough votes to pass the law, Congress
put in a 10 year sunset clause. Congress failed to reauthorize the law in 2004.
The ban expired, and assault weapons again flooded our streets. These weapons
are now legal unless banned by state or local laws. Both this law and the Brady
Act were supported by former President Ronald Reagan.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">It is
perfectly legal and Constitutional to ban AR15s and other semiautomatic assault
weapons. We did it before and we can do it again.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">National Firearms Act, 1934:</b> This
law makes it difficult to obtain a “suppressor” or “silencer.” A suppressor
muffles the noise of the gunshot and reduces the muzzle flash. By so doing, it
is much more difficult for law enforcement to find the location of a shooter.
The SHAPE Act in the House would weaken this law. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b> </b></span></div>
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
<br /><br /><span style="font-size: small;">THREE COURT CASES; READ 'EM AND WEEP</span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<b>1939, US v. Miller.</b> The court ruled that owning a sawed off shotgun was not protected under the Second Amendment because it had nothing to do with a well-regulated militia. This held until...<br />
<br />
<b>2008 District of Columbia v. Heller</b>. DC had a complete handgun ban. The court ruled this unconstitutional because they found the Second Amendment allowed a right to own a gun for self defense. This was affirmed in...<br />
<br />
<b>2010 McDonald v. City of Chicago.</b> For the second time, the court over-ruled a total gun ban and asserted a right to own a gun for self defense.<br />
<br />
These recent cases do not mean we cannot ban assault weapons, but they do close the door on banning ALL guns in society, at least until a new court decision overturns Heller and MacDonald. Furthermore, both Heller and MacDonald were very narrow in scope, allowing leeway for local and state bans of certain weapons to stand. </div>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"></span></h2>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike></span></b><br />
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
</span></b>
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">LEGISLATION AND ADMINISTRATIVE RULES</span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b>HR</b><b>3999. A bipartisan bill to ban “bump
stocks,”</b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> introduced by Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) and Seth Moulton (D-MA). This bill is stalled in
the House, as is companion legislation introduced in the Senate by Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). Bump stocks turn semi-automatic weapons into defacto fully
automatic weapons, vastly increasing their firepower. The Bump Stock was the
primary reason the Las Vegas shooting was the deadliest in US history. </span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span><b style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Obama Administrative Rule on Social
Security, Mental Health and Gun Ownership.</b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> In December, 2016, the Obama
Administration passed a rule that added persons <span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">to the National Instant Criminal Background Check
System who were </span>receiving Social Security
checks for mental illness, and who further had been deemed incompetent to
handle their own affairs . The Trump administration overturned the Obama rule. While the rule
only impacted about 75,000 Americans, it nonetheless runs contrary to GOP
lawmakers who insist we must focus on mental health, and then weaken what few
checks we actually had in place to screen for mental health. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"></span></span><br />
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">T<b>he</b><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> Sportsmen’s Heritage and Recreational Enhancement
Act (SHAPE).</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">This bill would make it far easier to buy a
gun silencer (or “suppressor” in more formal parlance). Ironically, hearings on
the bill have been delayed twice due to gun violence. The original hearing was scheduled on the day
a gunman opened fire at a Congressional baseball practice, seriously wounding
GOP Majority Whip Steve Scalise. It was delayed for a vote after the mass
shooting in Last Vegas last October. This bill would disembowel the National
Firearms Act of 1934. </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">S<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">ilencers mask a gun's muzzle flash and the sound of the shot. Silencers make it far harder for law enforcement to find the location of a shooter. Silencers are useless when hunting. The “Sportsmen’s Heritage” reference in the
name of the bill is frankly a smokescreen.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
</span></span>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">KNOW YOUR INCIDENTS</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> </span></h2>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">1999 Columbine High School, Columbine, CO: </span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">(15 dead, 24
injured)</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> (28 dead, 2
injured). Point to make with your Congress critter: the Shooter’s mother was an
NRA member and gun enthusiast. She believed arms training would help her
mentally disturbed son, who stole her gun, turned it on her and killed her,
then massacred 6 and 7 year olds at the local elementary school.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>NRA rifle range practice runs made this
shooter a more effective mass murderer. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">2</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">012 Movie Theater, Aurora, CO:</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> (12 dead, 58
injured).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">2016 Pulse Nightclub, Orlando FL:</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> (49 dead, 58
injured)</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2017 Las Vegas Route 91 Harvest Music
Festival:</b> (58 dead, 520 injured). The shooter in Las Vegas used both semi-automatic weapons and bump stocks. His arsenal is what made this the worst mass shooting in US history.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2018 Parkland High School, FL:</b> (17
dead, 14 injured)</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />
KNOW YOUR AMMO AND YOUR EXTRAS</span></h2>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">High Capacity
Ammunition Clips:</b> Generally, any ammunition “clip” that contains more than
10 bullets (10 “rounds”) is defined as high capacity. These clips allow
shooters to fire faster, killing more people.<span style="margin: 0px;">
</span>The Sandy Hook, Columbine and Vegas shootings were far more deadly due
to high capacity ammunition clips. Forcing a shooter to reload after just 10
rounds makes surviving a mass shooting far more likely and makes capturing the
shooter, as his attention is on reloading, far more likely.</div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: left;">
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Bump Stocks:</b> A bump stock allows a
shooter to turn a semi-automatic weapon into an automatic weapon. A semi-automatic
weapon fires a bullet each time the shooter squeezes the trigger. An automatic
weapon files a stream of bullets with one push of the trigger. The shooter in
Las Vegas used bump stocks to kill 58 and injure over 520, spraying a crowd with
a constant hail of bullets. </div>
<h2 style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<br /><span style="font-size: small;">GUN VIOLENCE IS MORE THAN JUST MASS SHOOTINGS </span></h2>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></b><br />
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: left;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br />
</b>Common sense gun laws aren’t just about mass shootings. Guns are used every
day of the year in robberies, homicides, domestic violence incidents, and suicides. Every day in America, guns kill. Unregulated bulk purchases of semi-automatic rifles at Texas gun shows contribute to the appalling
violence of Mexico's drug cartels. No one law is a panacea, so it is senseless to
focus on how one bill might not have prevented the latest mass shooting.
Background checks have prevented murders, and when we outlawed semi-automatic rifles, they disappeared from our streets. When you meet with or write to Members of Congress, point out the variety of problems with guns. Mention recent incidents, perhaps a high school student murdered the week before or a toddler who killed another toddler with an improperly stored weapon, or a boyfriend who slaughtered his girlfriend and their children. Sadly, you will not have to look hard or long to find a plethora of recent incidents.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></div>
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<br />
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">SAMPLE
ACTION FOR TEACHERS AND EDUCATORS</span></span></h2>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"></span></b><b><span style="color: #009000;"></span></b><br />
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><br />
Specifically for Nevadans, but it’s easy to customize. Call your GOP
representative and find out which staffer handles education issues, then
contact them.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Here's what you do. Call Dean
Heller's Education/Arts/Humanities/Family/Child/Women's issue staffer. Plan on a long conversation. Don't leave a message. The key here is to force the Congressional office to really address this issue with you.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Her name: Rachel Green<br />
<span style="margin: 0px;">Her Number: 202 224 6244</span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px;">Let her know why you are calling</span></span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">:
"I am a teacher. Under no circumstances do I want to carry a gun to
protect my students. The very suggestion that I need to run my classroom like the wild west is deeply offensive and insulting to my profession and my personal ethics. I go to my school to teach not to shoot to kill, nor do I believe more armed adults at my school make me or
my students safer. I want Congress to take action now against the epidemic of gun violence in our society. The Second Amendment refers to a well-regulated militia, not disturbed students carting high capacity semi-automatic rifles gunning down my students in the hallways.
We can and should pass sensible laws to end the threat of violence in our schools.".</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><br />
Present specific asks and actions for the Member: "</span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">I want my
Senator/Representative to address to me, in writing, the following specific
items:"</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">
<br />***Is my Senator/Representative willing to support and<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>co-sponsor a
bill to ban AR15 style semi-automatic assault weapons? No one needs an assault weapon for self
protection. President Reagan wanted these weapons banned, and if my Senator/Representative disagrees with President Reagan, I need them to explain why.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">***<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Is my Senator/Representative</span></span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"> willing to support House Resolution 3999
or the companion Senate proposal to ban bump stocks?<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Bump stocks were the sole reason so many
Americans lost their lives in Las Vegas and no law-abiding citizen ever needs to own
one. We do not need to wait months for the Department of Justice or the Administration to Act. Congress can ban bump stocks now.</span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
***Is my<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"> Senator/Representative</span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"> willing to enact a system of background checks that has real teeth?</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
***<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1d2129; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Is my Senator/Representative </span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"> willing to immediately
stop taking campaign donations from the National Rifle Association? If not, I need an explanation why.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">***</span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">If your Senator/Representative has taken donations
from the NRA, ask if they will donate those funds to assist victims of gun
violence and mass shootings.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="margin: 0px;"><span data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" style="margin: 0px;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">If you get voice mail, simply say "I am a teacher in NV and I must<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>speak with you about an education issue as
soon as possible." Then leave your name and number. Elsewise, she'll be
likely to wiggle out of calling you directly. Make her call you back if you
don't speak with her directly.</span></span></span><br />
<br />
If you don't get a specific letter, call Ms. Green EVERY DAY until you get your
letter.</div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h2 style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<br /><span style="font-size: small;">
SAMPLE ACTION: MAKE THE TROLL PAY THE TOLL</span></h2>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h2 style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"></span></h2>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">If you insist on arguing with trolls online,
as far too many of us do, be polite but tough. Focus your comments on morality,
don’t get sucked into endless debates about the Second Amendment. State simply that the Second Amendment refers to a well regulated militia. We banned assault weapons for a decade, and we could legally, constitutionally, ban them again. There is no legal argument here, so don't engage in one. Call an assault weapons ban the Christian thing to do. Seriously, bring religion into the discussion. These trolls aren't on the side of family values on this issue, so hammer that point home.<br />
<br />If trolls threaten you, which they do far too often,
make a complaint to Facebook, or report the posts as abusive if you are on a news media site. If you are tangling with a troll on a Congressional Facebook page, take a screen shot of offensive comments and
send the offensive quotes to your Congressional Representative. Ask them why they don't speak out against the hate speech on their page. Call the Congressman's office and ask to speak to the staff member in charge of the page. Urge them to moderate comments and to add official comments, on the Facebook or social media page, to directly address the folks spewing the bile. <span style="margin: 0px;"><br />
<br />
When you write members of Congress, include quotes from their abusive supporters.
Elected officials <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>should be speaking out
against hate speech among their political base; they do not because we don’t push
the issue with them. Point out that NRA commentators are many things; fine upstanding Christian family values people is often not one of those things. Point out that NRA supporters never show sympathy for victims. They want a gun filled society; we want one teeming with compassion, not AR15s. Ask them why they are willing to take campaign money from these hateful trolls.</span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Most of these actions only
take a few minutes longer than engaging with the troll. If we cannot resist feeding trolls, we can at least try to up our
efficacy a tad. </span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<h2 style="background: white; margin: 0in 0in 4.5pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;">TAKE THE FIGHT TO THE SOURCE:<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"> CALL THE NRA</span></span></h2>
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><b></b></span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><b></b></span><br />
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Call the f*****g NRA after every shooting.
Fuggetabout "it won't help." It actually will. The NRA's members are
older and less likely to give online. So, the NRA is old school in their
fundraising, and <span style="margin: 0px;"> they </span>rely on their call
center to get their low dollar donations, the $100 and under gifts that are
their bread and butter. If we made that call center chaotic for three or four
days after every mass shooting, we'd make the price of getting donations a lot more expensive.</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;"></span><br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">(800) 672-3888</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">In my toothy youth, between
campaigns, I once worked in a call center as a manager. My employer was a long
distance phone carrier. Their number one cost: training and keeping good customer service representatives. You
get nasty calls. It doesn't take many to totally demoralize the team and the staff turnover was gigantic. The NRA never hears from its detractors. They need to. Demoralize the NRA team.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">(800) 672-3888</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Make that call center
a distinctly unpleasant place to work. Talk to the beast. Don't scream like a liberal and hang
up after 30 seconds. That's a losing strategy. Engage the person who answers your call. Start with
questions about what the NRA does. Do you guys lobby? Do you weigh in on campaigns?
Don't sound like an opponent for the first two minutes. Get and keep them
talking. It frankly wastes their time. When you pivot to "how can you
[rep's name] in good conscious work for an organization that kills our
kids?" Don't yell. Seriously, make the call as long as possible.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">(800) 672-3888</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Waste their time, those customer representatives are on the NRA dime These folks are the front lines of the
most immoral organization in the country, and we never call them out for it.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">(800) 672-3888</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 4.5pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 4.5pt;">
<span style="color: #1d2129; margin: 0px;">Two weeks from now, when
we have another mass shooting, which we will, call the NRA again. Over the years,
I've convinced two representatives in that call center to resign. One even voted for
Obama. You can have an impact on the beast, but only if you engage the beast directly.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">MEET WITH YOUR MEMBER
OF CONGRESS </span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"> (It’s “common sense
gun laws” not “gun control”).<br />
<br />
</span></b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">The single most
powerful thing you can do is meet with your Representative or Senator or a member of their staff
to discuss their opposition to sensible gun laws. If you can, bring young
adults and teenagers who care about the issue with you. Bring the grandparents.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">(It’s “common sense
gun laws” not “gun control”).</span><br />
<br />
Office visits require more work than a simple phone call to the front desk. A quick call, at best, results in a staff member dashing off a vague form letter that they send to several thousand complainers. End of discussion. A meeting sends a stronger message: it’s
far harder to dismiss you face to face and your are sending a message to the Congressional office that you really care deeply about this issue. Take an in person meeting seriously. Dress like you are going to a job interview.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">(It’s “common sense
gun laws” not “gun control”).</span><br />
<br />Some offices don't offer "issue meetings" at local district offices, but others do. If they won’t
schedule an issue meeting locally, schedule a phone call with a staff member in
DC. Insist that this cannot be covered in a 30 second message you could leave at the front
desk. You want a longer conversation and want to talk to their staff expert on this issue.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">(It’s “common sense
gun laws” not “gun control”).</span><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><br />
</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">DO: Be flexible scheduling a time. Staff members are busy.<br />DO: Be upfront about who will be in the meeting or the conference call. Don't blindside a staff member with 6 high school students. Let the staffer know they'll be there.<br />
DO: Come prepared. Know the Member’s voting record and know which bills you
currently support. </span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">DON’T: Sound partisan. If they think you are a latte sipping, Rachel Maddow watching liberal, they’ll dismiss you. Be calm and forceful. Leave the staffer
believing you could vote for their boss, if only they’d pay attention to this
issue. This is deadly serious: leave them thinking they’ve annoyed a
constituent that can cost them on election day.<br />DO: Couch your arguments in terms of traditional family values. Using language the
staff is used to hearing from friendly supporters is critical. It gives your arguments
far more persuasive weight.<br />DO: Demand that your call or meeting be followed up by a letter from the Member
(Representative or Senator) specifically addressing your concerns. Don’t take a vague form
letter. If they send you one, call them back and demand something specific in
writing. <br />DO: Demand the Representative meet with you and your neighbors about this issue
when they are in the District. They won’t want to do that. Push them. Children’s
lives are at stake.<br />DO: Follow up your meeting or call with a letter outlining what was discussed
and what you expect from the office.<br />DO: Take the moral high ground. Assault weapons aren't Christian. Bump stocks are not a family value. The NRA is not a moral or ethical organization.<br />DO: Make your meeting about more than mass shootings. Come prepared with a list of gun victims in your city over the last month, especially those that involved innocent bystanders. Guns kill every day.</span></div>
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</h2>
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">RESPONSES TO STAFF MEETING
COUNTERARGUMENTS</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
<br />THE BIGGIE: The Court cases of Heller and McDonald, discussed above, allow citizens to own guns.<br /><br /><i>Your response:</i> Yes, Heller and McDonald assert the right to own a gun for self defense, but the decisions were narrowly drawn. We can and should ban assault rifles. These are not designed for personal protection, they are weapons of war. And language matters, always say "Weapons of war."<br /><br />We have a moral obligation to uphold life. Our children should not fear walking down the hallway of their school.<br /><br />1) “The old saw “it’s too soon to talk about gun
laws.” <br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Your response:</i> Too many Representatives and Senators said this in 2012 after Sand Hook, and again after the
October 1, 2017 Las Vegas shooting and several times in between, after every
massacre. Is it time to talk about sensible gun laws with regard to the Sandy Hook
shooting yet? It’s been nearly 6 years. People are dying, and you have a moral,
ethical and Christian obligation to have a public policy discussion now.<br />
<br />Mass shootings are the tip of the iceberg. We have shootings every day, and
every day abusers use weapons to terrorize their girlfriends or spouses. <br />
<br />
2) We must protect the freedoms of gun owners. <br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Your response:</i> I am here today to
protect the lives of children. The Second Amendment refers to a citizen army, a well regulated militia, it does not reference kids carting around weapons of mass destruction in our schools. The Heller and McDonald decisions don't change that. No moral, law-abiding American needs to
own an AR15. Frankly, my children’s lives are more important than the “freedom”
to own a firearm that can slaughter two dozen of our citizens in a minute's time.<br /><br />We legally banned these filthy weapons for 10
years, and the ban was both perfectly legal and perfectly Constitutional and we can and should do it again. We need to focus
on the Biblical proscription here: THOU SHALT NOT KIL and not the NRA's gross misinterpretation
of the Second Amendment. The high
school students calling “BS” on this argument are right; you need to act to
make them safer.<br />
<br />
3) Laws won’t work, or [a given law] would not have prevented Parkland [or whatever shooting
is the most recent].<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Your response: </i><span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>If we never pass any laws, we’ll never know if they'll prevent future massacres,
will we? Ask the staffer if they are familiar with the </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of
1994.</span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
If they don’t know the law, and many younger staffers will not, it’s helpful to
discuss it to gain the upper hand in the conversation.<br />
<br />
This law was passed as a result of the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan.
It had the support of Reagan, Bush Sr. , Gerald Ford, and Bill Clinton. It banned assault weapons for 10 years. In a joint letter to the Boston Globe, Gerald
Ford and Reagan wrote “<span style="background: white; color: #333333; margin: 0px;">While we
recognize that assault weapon legislation will not stop all assault weapon
crime, statistics prove that we can dry up the supply of these guns, making
them less accessible to criminals."<br />
<br />
Those Presidents were right. </span>Let’s look at the impact:</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />
<br />According to the Department of Justice, t</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">he
percentage of crimes that utilized assault weapons declined by 32% once the law
was enacted. By 2004, assault weapons were just 10% of recovered crime guns.
Then, Congress was foolish and let the ban expire. By 2014, assault
weapons were 22% of recovered crime weapons and mass shootings, with increasingly alarming casualties, soared to epidemic proportions.<br />
<br />
No, the AR15 won’t disappear overnight should we ban them again, but it will
disappear over time. Furthermore, we can ban the sale of high capacity
ammunition clips for any weapon. Without the ammo, the guns are far less
effective. Not passing any law is simply immoral given the steady stream of
massacres on our soil. You owe our children a more responsible response than a
smug “No law can fix this” shrug. That is not only false, it’s disrespectful to
the lives lost to simply throw your hands in the air. <br />
<br />
4) The Second Amendment is sacred<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Your Response:</i> The Second Amendment
referred, EXPLICITLY, to a “Well Regulated Militia.” <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Congress enacted the Second Amendment,
in no small part, to explain to the world our justification for overthrowing a
European power. We were a poor bunch of colonies. Dirt poor. In order to have an army, we
had to require that members of the militia bring their own weapon. The Heller and McDonald decisions don't change this. Owning a handgun is not the same as owning an assault weapon, a defacto weapon of war.<br />
<br />
In any event, banning bump stocks or assault weapons is perfectly legal. We
legally banned assault weapons in 1994 and could do it again, if your
Representative/Senator shows the courage to buck the NRA and protect our
nation’s children. <br />
<br />
If the staffer insists on pushing the Second Amendment argument, push back. Their
argument will be based upon “Original Intent.” That is, we should only pass
laws in line with the original intent of the Constitution. The Constitution is
well over 200 years old. It was a brilliant, but by no means perfect document
in a world very different from our own. The Original Intent of the Constitution
allowed white citizens to own and sell blacks. The Original Intent of the
Constitution denied women the right to vote. The Original Intent of the
Constitution did NOT allow for the popular election of US Senators. Senators
were elected by State Legislators. Over the decades, we recognized the flaws in
the original document and passed laws/amendments to make the document more
just. <span style="margin: 0px;"> </span><br />
<br />
The Founders were very firm on the sanctity of human life. Jefferson would not
favor massive civilian ownership of AR15s in light of massacres in our schools,
and we can legally, under the Constitution, ban them TODAY.<br />
<br />
5) The Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms Agency should regulate bump stocks. <br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Your response:</i> Using the ATF to
“review” bump stocks was suggested by the GOP and the NRA after the Las Vegas
massacre on October 1, 2017.<span style="margin: 0px;"> </span>Nearly five
months later, no action has been taken, and now we have dead children in
Parkland, Florida. Both Senator Chris Murphy (D CT) and Lindsay Graham ( R SC)
have stated they believe the ATF will take no action unless directed by the
White House. President Trump has refused to give that direction. This inaction
is unconscionable. No moral American needs to own a bump stock, which turns a
semi-automatic rifle into a hose spraying bullets. We have a moral, ethical and
Christian obligation to outright ban them, now.<br />
<br />
If the staffer insists on the “ATF solution” push them. Would their
Representative/Senator be willing to hold a press conference DEMANDING
regulatory action by the ATF and demanding the Trump Administration act. If
they aren’t willing to do that, demand that the Representative or Senator
explain why they will not do so in writing.<br /><br />President Trump has indicated he would be in favor of banning bump stocks. But he's only asked the Department of Justice to craft a rule. That could take months, and some experts suspect the intent is simply to delay until attention of guns has waned. What we need is an act of Congress.</span></div>
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</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">6) We just need to focus on mental health.<br />
<br />
The guys who are grabbing assault rifles and shooting dozens of people aren’t
“sane” in common parlance. But, they are likely not “insane” under established
medical guidelines. The American Psychological Association’s 2016 guide “Gun
Violence and Mental Illness” found 1 percent of fatal shootings involved a
mentally ill shooter. Just 22% of mass shooters might have diagnosed as
mentally ill. Angry or depressed young men aren’t easy to diagnose,
particularly given our very lax background check systems. Adding checks for
mental illness would be a start, it will not and should not be considered a
panacea.</span></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;">
LEAD WITH MORALITY</span></h2>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b></b></span><br />
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />If your Representative or Senator is Catholic (or particularly religious),
print this letter in the link below. It was penned by a Catholic Bishop, urging Senator Marco Rubio to take sensible
gun laws seriously. Take the letter with you to a meeting with your Congressman, or email it to a staffer so they can read it if you choose to do a conference call. Ask them to comment on the letter. The NRA is many things;
Christian simply isn’t one of them.<br /><a href="http://www.cfdiocese.org/cfe/an-open-letter-from-bishop-gregory-o-brewer-to-senator-marco-rubio/">http://www.cfdiocese.org/cfe/an-open-letter-from-bishop-gregory-o-brewer-to-senator-marco-rubio/</a><br />
<br />
Tell the staffer that you take family values seriously and you demand that your
elected officials do more than thunder about morality while backing groups like
the NRA that are complicit in the murder of children. Tell them you are
disappointed that the GOP is abandoning your children for the NRA’s “right” to
litter America with dangerous, unnecessary weapons.</span></div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span><br />
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />
DEMAND CONGRESS VOTE ON SENSIBLE GUN
LAWS</span></h2>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b></b></span><br />
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />The GOP has blocked votes on bump stocks, assault weapons bans, and background
checks. Let the staffer know that this is unacceptable. You can oppose a law,
but we should never prevent fellow lawmakers from voting. You want them on the
record on how they stand on these bills. Hiding behind procedural rules that prevent votes on
controversial issues is one of the reasons Congress is so unpopular.</span></div>
<h2 style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />DON'T GET DISCOURAGED</span></h2>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px; text-align: left;">
This will be a long fight. Don't get discouraged. If you can, join a march or rally. There is nothing more cathartic than yammering about the NRA with thousands of your close friends. Public opinion is on our side, we just need to keep up the discipline.</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><b></b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><br />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
</span></div>
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</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 16.5pt; margin: 0px 0px 10.66px; text-align: left;">
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-22117172920662768272017-01-15T10:52:00.002-08:002017-01-15T10:52:53.872-08:00Jesus Tweets: Yes, it's true. Donald Trump is racist poo<br /><div class="MsoNormal">
Next weekend is the first big test for those of us dedicated
to fighting the Twittering Twit the GOP is installing at 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue. You don’t have to travel to or live in DC to partake, there are marches planned
all across the county. SHOW UP. Numbers matter. Seriously, SHOW UP. We have an
opportunity to turn coverage away from pomp and circumstance and back to the
issues that actually matter. Trump is an existential threat to our Democracy. Don’t run
to the beach or the mountains or hide in your house binge watching some TV
series. SHOW UP. If you don’t feel comfortable marching, think of it this way:
how comfortable is a 17 year old Mexican girl whose parents brought her over to
the US at age 2, and who recently discovered she isn’t a citizen?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
SHOW UP.<br />
<br />
Ten years from now, when your children ask what you did to stop Trump, do you
really want to say “nothing”?<br />
<br />
SHOW UP.<br />
<br />
As a veteran of a lot of marches, I offer a few humble suggestions on how to
ruckus right.<br />
<br />
1) <b><i>Signs
and posters should be painted on BOTH SIDES. </i></b>One of the more amusing
things in DC is to see a rally or protest from afar, and approaching from the
rear, you gaze upon a sea of blank poster board because the slogans are only on
one side. Paint your slogan on BOTH sides of your poster board. <br />
<br />
2) <b><i>Don’t
use a stick as a base for your poster.</i></b> In some areas, sticks won’t be
permitted. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3) <b><i>Wear comfortable shoes.</i></b> Marches aren’t
fashion shows and you’ll be on your feet for a long time, especially if you are
attending the events in DC.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4) <b><i>Stay engaged:</i></b> Chant and make noise,
and take your nose out of your IPhone.<br />
<br />
5) <b><i>Remember
your audience</i>.</b> This isn’t just for us, we need to send a strong message
to Team GOP and the press<b><i>. The paramount message is that the
Republicans are NOT the team that stands for Family Values</i></b>; the press
has given them a pass on this point for far, far too many years. Family Values
Presidents don’t grab women by the pussy and they don’t call all Mexicans
rapists and they don’t blow off critical national security briefings. It’s time
to take that phrase “Family Values” back. Many in the GOP are worried about
Trump, even if they’ll never admit it publicly, at least not yet. They are
beginning to see the size of the moral abyss they just elected. Calling them
out will get us noticed.<br />
<br />
If you are interviewed by the media, draw a distinction between the GOP and
actual morality. The question they’ll ask is almost always the same:<br />
<br />
Q: “Why are you out here today?”<br />
<br />
A: " I have grown tired of being told the
GOP stands for family values. Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans don’t
support family values. They don’t. Trump is a disgusting ill-informed racist,
sexist pig and Congressional Republicans need to call him out on his outrageous
behavior.”<br /><br />6) <b><i>Chant and sign suggestions. </i></b>The press delight in the ironic chant; try some of these “best
of the Anti-Trump movement” signs and
slogans below. If you have other suggestions (we need all the slogans we can
get, it’s going to be a long day) put them in a comment.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<i>For the family values message:</i><br />
<br />
GOP, NOT FOR ME, ANTI-CHRISTIAN FILTH.<br />
FAMILY VALUES YES. THE GOP, NO.<br />
DONALD TRUMP IS A RACIST CHUMP<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
HATE IS NOT A FAMILY VALUE<br />
DUMP TRUMP, RACIST CHUMP<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
DUMP TRUMP, SEXIST CHUMP<br />
LOVE NOT HATE MAKES AMERCIA GREAT<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
JOHN LEWIS IS MY HERO; TRUMP IS JUST A RACIST ZERO<br />NO TRUMP, NO KKK, NO FASCIST USA<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>And don’t forget
Russia….</i><br />
<br />
DONALD TRUMP IS PUTIN’S CHUMP<br />
THE GOP, THE GOP, WHOLLY OWNED BY THE KGB<br />
<br />
<i>And the wall….<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
CAN’T BUILD A WALL, HANDS ARE TOO SMALL<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
BUILD A WALL AROUND TRUMP, I’LL PAY<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<i>Or the hair…</i><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
WE SHALL OVERCOMB<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THERE WILL BE HELL TOUPEE<br />
<br />
<i>Or Twitter…</i><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
IMPEACH THE TWITTERING TWIT<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Or the aggressive
sexism…<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
MAKE MYSOGYNY GREAT AGAIN<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Or the immigrants,
with maybe a nod to Boradway's Hamilton:<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
IMMIGRANTS: WE GET THE JOB DONE<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Have more ideas? Post them in the comments. And happy ruckusing. We should remember that Martin Luther King, Jr. had to march down a lot more dangerous roads than what is required of us. SHOW UP, Let's get the job done.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-68226385110708591982017-01-08T15:57:00.000-08:002017-01-08T16:43:35.647-08:00A Musician's Resolution<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">My road to data driven politics was long and winding. I
hearken from a classical music background. Conservatory training brings with it
a natural “glass half empty” attitude I find helpful in the political dodge. Serious
musicians spend a lot of time alone, in a practice room, constantly evaluating
their playing and making changes and improvements. If you aren’t your own harshest, most
iconoclastic critic, you will never succeed. This isn’t considered noble or out
of the ordinary for a serious classical or jazz musician. No one has ever become a better musician
practicing what they already know. You identify and attack bad habits and drill
and listen to hone your skills.<br /><br />And you do it 4 or 5 hours every dang day.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">For those of us in the progressive space, the musician offers helpful lessons. Let’s make 2017 a
musician’s year. First, let’s all be hard on ourselves. I’m seeing a bit of the
blame game on the Internet of late. The left is blaming the center, state
players are blaming their national organizations, folks who don’t understand
data are waxing Luddite and blaming the “white coated statisticians.” Vendors
are blaming the campaign. Folks who didn’t spend one millisecond helping out a
campaign with their dollars or their time are kvetching as if they have all the
answers.</span><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Screw all that. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Seriously. <br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><i>We just fought a long, hard campaign and we not only lost, we put a
dangerous, anti-intellectual, racist, sexist, megalomaniacal butthead in the
White House. All of us bring some blame to the
table</i></b>. <b><i>EVERYONE. No exceptions.</i></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> Sure, it hurts to realize that not all of those midnight data pulls on
Saturday, the weeknight wee hour sessions, or the daily grind for months failed to move enough votes on election night. So, we need to do better. And we need to be tough on ourselves this year,
the very Republic is at stake. But I’m not shedding tears. It’s just time to re-evaluate
and get back in the practice room.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">First, we need to get out of our silos; yes, we need to do the work we do in
our niches to pay the mortgage and keep our pups in kibble, but we need to be
far more flexible.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Did the big data folks oversell their
usefulness? YES</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Did we ignore turnout indicators on the other team (turnout after
all is relative)? YES</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Did the field become too obsessed with the base, all the while ignoring persuasion:
YES</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><i>And even if you don’t work in politics, you aren’t off the hook here:</i></b>
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Did the political left become solipsistic and smug, utterly unwilling to accept
that a huge chunk of the electorate DOESN’T always see the world through their
eyes? YES <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Did too many folks think this election was a done deal and sit on their hands? YES</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Are too many of the folks reading this guilty of kvetching about the state of
America (on and off line), all the while donating no money to the cause, refusing to find the
time to knock on doors or make phone calls? YES </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br />
<b><i>Let’s
all take a day or two, or even a week, and look at our own failings. No one is
guilt free. Don’t blame others, that won’t make you a better player, a more
refined politico capable of the adroitness of a fine violinist or jazz
improviser. BLAME YOURSELF. All of us, every last one, made mistakes. It’s not
self-flagellation. It’s the only way out of the pit we’ve dug. No musician ever
improved blaming the conductor, or the Oboists poor “tuning note” or the humid
weather that caused their tone quality to suffer. They look within, they
evaluate, they criticize themselves, and only then do they grow.</i></b><br />
<br />
And that’s what we need to do tonight and moving forward.<br /><br />Stay tuned both here and on the Democratic Daily, I'll be offering a lot of actions, sample letters to elected officials and things to do to fight Donald the Tweeting Twit Trump.<br /><br />
So, let’s get busy, Let’s get in that practice room, and let’s get to work.</span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-50041712090930392422016-12-31T15:44:00.001-08:002016-12-31T15:44:09.559-08:00New Year's Resolutions for the Media<b><i>Tonight's post comes from political and Civil War historian Dr. Michael Green, UNLV (who is a highly respected historian with oodles of publications and awards...more on that here: https://www.unlv.edu/people/michael-green). <br /><br />We'll need a strong media in the coming years, and his thoughts are valuable. If you haven't yet, give $$$$$ to NPR, the Washington Post and the New York Times. Just as your models,voter files, musical skills or other professional skills aren't free, neither is courageous reporting. Pay your dues, peeps, pay your dues. Freeloaders can't fight Trump...<br /><br /> Dr. Green, I turn it over to you:</i></b><br /><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The media who covered the
presidential election of 2016 have a lot to answer for on Judgment Day. But
when Saint I.F. Stone (google him) greets them at the Pearly Gates, they can
help their chances if they make these resolutions and keep them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Always look for the unhappy ones</i>. James
Reston of <i>The New York Times</i> won the
first of two Pulitzer Prizes for reporting when he obtained the secret papers
the Allies had drawn up for the Dumbarton Oaks conference, which gave birth to
the United Nations. Each nation’s representative blamed whoever he disliked or
considered his greatest rival for leaking the papers. Reston actually got them
from a member of the Chinese delegation who was upset at the lack of attention
his country received (a personal connection also helped, but we’ll get to
that).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Democrats
will be unhappy during a Trump administration. So will some Republicans—John
McCain and Lindsay Graham, for example, if the new president is too friendly
with Russia. The media would do well to cultivate the losing side and those who
feel left out on the winning side.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Look for the nothings.</i> During a 1960s
conference, several CBS newsmen hoped to find out what went on inside a closed
meeting. Charles Collingwood, one of the brilliant corps of correspondents
Edward R. Murrow hired during World War II, arrived with the minutes of the
meeting. He told the group, “There’s a young man in the Laotian delegation whom
I used to know at the Sorbonne. He’s nothing, the fifth secretary of the
delegation. But he did happen to have the minutes.” Marvin Kalb, a superb
diplomatic correspondent for two decades, said his colleague “went for somebody
like the Laotian fifth secretary, who he <i>knew</i>
would know what was going on.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Similarly,
Reston went to a lower-level Chinese official—who also happened to have worked
at one time at <i>The New York Times</i>.
Like Collingwood, he knew how to exploit connections. But if they were covering
the Iditarod, both of them would have understood that the lead dog may know a
lot, but the dog at the back is closer to the sled and the driver, and may know
more. Reporters need to cultivate those sources. Remember: Bob Woodward’s
friend Mark Felt only confirmed information, but Carl Bernstein’s ability to
get to know telephone company employees helped them find numbers they might not
otherwise have obtained.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Remember Joseph McCarthy and Murrey Marder</i>.
McCarthy is more famous as the senator leading the communist witch hunt of the
1950s, attacking reputations without a shred of evidence or compunction. In <i>The Powers That Be</i>, David Halberstam
brilliantly described McCarthy’s technique:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It
was a great journalistic shell game of its kind, hit and run: McCarthy charges,
press picks up, pa<span class="textexposedshow">sses on, never checks, charges
are forgotten, McCarthy goes to next town, reveals a new set of charges, press
again uncritically passes them on. McCarthy had shrewdly and ruthlessly seized
on the weakest part of the mechanics of journalism, the desire of reporters to
have a hot story, and the ability of a senator--who was after all a high public
official, and thus a serious man--to make a charge. Because he was a serious
man the charge became, if not reality, at least news. The boys in the Senate
press gallery occasionally had minor qualms about what McCarthy was doing and
what their role in it war, but there were always excuses: he was a senator,
their editors wanted it, the play was good, Joe might be right, you could never
tell. Sure, they had doubts, but only a columnist could express doubts. Thus it
was news. So it was not just McCarthy who was violating the essential bond of
trust and civility in a free society, it was the press that was a willing
accessory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> The hero of Halberstam’s account is
Marder, a reporter at <i>The Washington Post</i>,
who was determined to hold McCarthy to account. Whenever McCarthy made a claim,
Marder would carefully investigate it, or point out how it diverged from
something else he had said, or put it into a broader perspective—when McCarthy
claimed communists had infiltrated the army, Marder went to the base in
question to get the real story, rather than just going into print with what
McCarthy claimed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> Marder’s editors supported him, but when
they questioned him, Marder replied, as Halberstam put it, “either you believed
that a full and fair and honorable explanation of the man and what he was doing
was all your readers needed and would in the end bring him down, or there was
no sense in being a journalist.” The journalist’s job is supposed to be a full
and fair and honorable explanation of what is happening. Halberstam knew it.
Marder knew it. Marder’s editors knew it. So should today’s journalists,
regardless of the demands of Twitter and internet hits.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> <i>Learn
From Russell Baker</i>. Those familiar with Baker know him as the onetime host
of <i>Masterpiece Theater</i> on PBS or for
37 years of Pulitzer Prize-winning commentary in <i>The New York Times</i> or for his charming (and Pulitzer Prize-winning)
memoir, <i>Growing Up</i>. They also can
learn from him about journalism. <i>The
Times</i> had assigned him to cover the U.S. Senate, and the then-majority
leader, Lyndon Johnson offered to help him. Baker grasped there would be a
price: “a sweetheart contract … couldn’t do me anything but harm.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> Baker understood that. But he also
understood himself, and what he wanted to do. “I had never been much interested
in getting ‘inside’ information and scoops. Such stuff was important to a
newspaper, but it wasn’t what I did well. On the Senate beat I hoped to give
the reader accurate and absorbing pictures of the fascinations that occurred there
daily,” he said. “I wanted to let readers know that senators billed as titans
of statesmanship were also human. That the Foreign Relations Committee’s
stately Walter George of Georgia was also the senator from Coca-Cola, that
Senator [J. William] Fulbright [a scholarly and thoughtful foreign policy
expert] also worried about keeping the board of Arkansas Power and Light
pacified, that the oil industry often called tunes for senators like, well …
Lyndon Johnson.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> Good writing and reporting can capture a lot
in a few words. Scoops and inside information can be part of a bigger picture.
Consider today’s Senate. The GOP leader’s wife has been nominated for the
president’s cabinet; if that doesn’t present problems, what does? The
Democratic leader once replied—correctly, to be fair—to Jon Stewart’s criticism
of his efforts to tweak Dodd-Frank by saying that “Wall Street is in my
district.” Those facts won’t necessarily breed great scoops, but they certainly
are part of providing “accurate and absorbing pictures.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> <i>Know
Thy Followers and Readers, and Care About Them First</i>. David Farenthold, who
did brilliant reporting on Trump’s foundation, used Twitter to try to round up
information. Some correspondents interview someone for one story and never
expect to encounter that person again, but good journalism involves saving
string: the school nurse interviewed for a story about vaccinations might end
up being in charge of medical care for her region and have a great story for a
reporter about Obamacare, good or bad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="textexposedshow"> People like them ultimately matter more
than whether other journalists adore you. An editor in my hometown once told me
the story of a reporter who begged to be taken off of a story that was on the
front page every day because other reporters laughed at him—they didn’t think
it was their kind of story. It wasn’t. It was just a great news story, and the
public liked it and cared. That needs to matter more than whether your
colleagues follow you on Twitter, or whether they invite you onto their
television panels.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-398699972509986232016-12-08T14:39:00.001-08:002016-12-08T14:39:46.132-08:00The Letter is Mightier Than the Mouse ClickAs the initial shock of the electon wears off, and Trump and Pence pack the Cabinet with anti-government, science denying, anti-worker knuckle-draggers, it's time for us all to take some action.<br />
<br />
But not all "actions" are created equal. Here is a handy cheat sheet. 100 points is the best thing a citizen activist can possibly hope to do with one single action, and 1 is the worst. Based on that scale, let's look at some actions:<br />
<br />
<b>1) SIGNING AN ONLINE PETITION:</b><br />
<b> POINTS: 2 out of 100</b><br />
<b> GRADE: G, because sometimes an F is not bad enough.</b><br />
<br />
Our Facebook feeds are full of standard online petitions, where you enter your name and an email address and (maybe) if they are on the vaguely sophisticated side, a Zip Code. Then, you click your mouse to send and call it a night.<br />
<br />
Dirty little secret: These petitions are the single most ineffective thing you can do as an activist. Since the Internet is the provenance of memes, I'll give you a meme:<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><i>ONLINE PETITIONS ARE COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, STAGGERINGLY, BREATHTAKINGLY USELESS. </i></b></span><br />
<br />
The progressive movement has done a fantastic job using online petitions for fundraising, but their impact on lobbying Congress or elected officials is severely limited. Most of the time, online petitions are essentially a front for fundraising. The environmental or choice or other activist group is collecting your email so they can ask for money later ("later" generally commences milliseconds after you sign the petition and you see the gigantic, easy eye "donate" button on your screen). There is nothing at all wrong with this. Those groups need money, but don't assume that signing the petition moves either lawmakers or legislation. It moves neither.<br />
<br />
<b><i>ONLINE PETITIONS ARE COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, STAGGERINGLY, BREATHTAKINGLY USELESS. </i></b><br />
<br />
And, there are some dirty little secrets. Change.org petitions are often NOT EVEN DELIVERED to Congress. Non profits use the service to enhance their email lists. A non-profit pays to use the Change.org site; any new emails that come in on that petition are given to the non-profit, at a price per email. It's great for list building, and it's somewhat effective at corporate lobbiyng (spooking a business by showing them customers are angry). At the Congressional level, it brings us back to our meme:<br />
<br />
<b><i>ONLINE PETITIONS ARE COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, STAGGERINGLY, BREATHTAKINGLY USELESS. </i></b><br />
<br />
Sites like Credo and MoveOn are also more effective at corporate lobbying than lobbying Congress. They are simply too ideological. Consider: Speaker Paul Ryan full well understands that anyone signing a liberal group's petition is highly unlikely to vote for a Republican, at least not until they are 90, dementia laden, and can no longer read the party labels on their ballot. So, Ryan and his Congressional colleagues will simply wholesale ignore a couple hundred printed pages of "signatures" delivered to their staff. And before you pillory the GOP on this, put the shoe on the Donkey: Neither Bernie Sanders nor Elizabeth Warren are likely to be swayed by an online petition circulated by the NRA, a Koch brother PAC, Rush Limbaugh or Breitbart. Remember the meme:<br />
<br />
<b><i>ONLINE PETITIONS ARE COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, STAGGERINGLY, BREATHTAKINGLY USELESS. </i></b><br />
<br />
EFFECTIVELY lobbying Congress takes a LOT more time and effort.<br />
<br />
So, since the online petition doesn't work, try this:<br />
<br />
<b>2) A personalized email or letter.</b><br />
<b> POINTS: 85 out of 100</b><br />
<b> GRADE: B+</b><br />
<br />
This only works, however, if you DO YOUR HOMEWORK.<br />
<br />
CHOOSE YOUR TARGET: Before you write, call the Representative's or Senator's office and ask them for the name of the person who handles the issue you would like to write about and get their email address. If you are addressing climate change ask for the environmental staffer; if it's education, ask for the education staffer. Don't just use the office's main email address, it's an electronic data dumpster; get the staff person's email and send it directly to them. Even if the receptionist won't give you their email over the phone once you have a name you can generally Google them to find it.<br />
<br />
WRITE CAREFULLY. THEY GO LOW, WE GO HIGH: Check your anger and your partisanship at the door. You are trying to convince someone you are right, and they are wrong. You won't get there with all caps, or profanity, or worse yet, a four paragraph electronic version of the Harry Potter Howler. Keep your missive professional. For an example of a letter on Gun Control, click here:<br />
<br />
http://behranalytics.blogspot.com/2013/04/dear-senator.html<br />
<br />
Research your issue, and write armed with real facts.Tell the official your concerns and that his or her opinion on your issue means a great deal to you and will influence your vote. But don't wear your partisanship on your sleeve. If Speaker Ryan's staffer senses "hard core liberal" your missive carries less weight. You don't need to hide anything, just advocate cleverly. THEY GO DUMB, WE GO SMART.<br />
<br />
If you want to fight for Medicare, look at how Senator Al Franken from Minnesota chose his words in a missive criticizing the incoming Trump Administration:<br />
<br />
"More than 55 million Americans depend on Medicare’s guaranteed access to medical care. Nearly a million of those people are Minnesotans [find the number for your state and insert that in this sentence]. All of them paid into the system during their careers, and all of them retired with the understanding that the next generation would care for them when they needed it most. Donald Trump did not run on a promise to end Medicare as we know it. In fact, he promised that he was “not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid.” But that’s not what he’s saying anymore. He's already shown that he's comfortable with breaking his campaign promises."<br />
<br />
Or, look at a paragraph from the Democratic Senators' letter to Trump on Medicare:<br />
<br />
" Low-income children and families and people with disabilities are the primary beneficiaries of Medicaid. Millions of seniors and individuals with disabilities have earned and rely on their Medicare benefits. Medicaid is the only assistance available to millions of low and middle-income families who have a loved one requiring nursing home care. As you noted when you extolled their benefits on your campaign website, cutting these programs would be devastating."<br />
<br />
We might add a final paragraph, deftly avoiding partisanship:<br />
<br />
"Understand, Mr. Trump, voters are no longer interested in the same old tired GOP rhetoric. You were right to oppose old school Republicans on trade, and you were right to oppose them on Medicare. America did not vote for more of the same, and it's morally repellent for you to back off your promises, even before you take the oath of office. Are you for change, or for more of the same? If you think tossing your campaign promises into the first trash can you pass is leadership, don't bother accepting the oath of office on January 20. Shame on you, Sir. Shame. I am respectfully requesting the favor of a reply from your Administration, and I'd like you to answer this question: how is breaking your campaign promise 'Making America Great Again'?"<br />
<br />
No need to be disingenuous. Just make your reader at the White House who reads your letter (and it will be an impressionable aide, not Trump), come away with an uneasy question "Are we annoying one of OUR voters here?".<br />
<br />
If you don't get a reply within a week, follow up, re-posting your original message. And keep doing it until you do get a reply.<br />
<br />
This will be more effective than including any of the following quotes from petition and news site comments on Medicare:<br />
<br />
"YouGottaBeFuckinKiddingMe!!"<br />
<br />
"Trump is larding up his cabinet with so many despicable scumbags"<br />
<br />
"It was only a matter of time before the most selfish nation in the world did something like this. The US is totally isolated and reviled."<br />
<br />
Or these comments online regarding Trump's choice for EPA Secretary:<br />
<br />
"The good news is that you'll get a dead otter with every fillup, you can eat it or mount it on your wall."<br />
<br />
"Trump's billionaire cabinet picks and pay to play what's in it for me appointees and the orange turd hasn't even been sworn in yet."<br />
<br />
In blog posts to follow, I'll be posting sample letters and fact sheets. Want to fight Bannon? Argue for renewable energy? Fight for fair funding in education? Stay tuned.<br />
<br />
BE INFORMED and put TIME into your activism. You'll get out of it what you put into it. If you rely on the one mouse click petition, you get what you invested: nothing.<br />
<br />
And, yes, I'll give you the meme one last time.<br />
<br />
<b><i>ONLINE PETITIONS ARE COMPLETELY, TOTALLY, STAGGERINGLY, BREATHTAKINGLY USELESS. </i></b><br />
<br />
You can do better than clicking a button. And given we are facing a Trump Administration, you are going to need to step up your game, and quickly.Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-91851482453302110862016-11-29T15:08:00.001-08:002016-11-29T15:08:13.484-08:00The College No One Should Attend<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">For the second time in five Presidential elections, America is rewarding the White House to the candidate who lost the popular vote. When all the ballots are counted, Mr. Trump will have fallen 2.3 to 2.5 MILLION votes short. Just as in 2000, when Mr. Gore defeated Mr. Bush in the popular vote, apologists are emerging for the Electoral College. They are dead wrong, and they are taking the Electoral College out of historical context. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Hit back, but put it in context. The original Constitution had...er...no faith in the average citizen. It was a baby step toward a Democracy and was more of a "hey, this divine right of Kings thing needs to go, so let's gingerly try something new" document rather than a recipe for the 21st Century. We've eliminated most of the anti-Democratic tendencies of the 18th Century and taken the Constitution into the 21st. The Electoral College, in this light, is just the last shoe that needs to drop not some sacred institution we need or want any longer.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Let's look at what the Founder's intent was for the common voter and see what seems fair today, two and a half centuries later.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The Constitution forbade women, blacks, and non property owning whites from voting, and it counted slaves as 3/5 of a person in assigning US House districts so that the population-poor south could keep slavery legal. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Raise your hand, in the 21st Century, if you think these are things you'd like to bring back.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The Constitution forbade popular election of US Senators. They were elected by members of the various state legislatures. </span><span style="background-color: white;">Raise your hand, in the 21st Century, if you would like to give up voting for your Senators by popular vote.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The Constitution gave the District of Columbia no Electoral Votes in the Presidential race. Now, It has three. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Raise your hand, in the 21st century, if you would like to disenfranchise the 690,000 residents of DC.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The Electoral College was, in part, put together to OVERTURN the vote of the people if they voted for someone....unfortunate. </span><span style="background-color: white;">Raise your hand if you want an elector, whom you've never met, to vote THEIR conscious and not yours, for the President of the United States.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The population distribution of the US has never been more uneven. A guy in Wyoming has his vote rolled into 187,000 vote blocks to make one electoral vote. Eligible voters in California have their vote rolled into blocks of 592,000. In the 21st Century, everyone should be equal; a vote in Wyoming should NOT carry three times the weight as a vote in California. The Electoral College is one of the leading reasons voting participation lags behind Europe. GOP voters in California believe (justifiably) that their vote for President "won't matter" just as Democratic voters in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma or Texas feel likewise disenfranchised. The students marching on America's college campuses should be praised, not condemned. They know systemic disenfranchisement when they see it. We tell them "vote, it matters." We don't tell them..."your vote matters...er....depending upon where you live and how you vote." They are trying to hold us to our words.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The population distribution is getting worse every year. In some scenarios, by 2024 it will be quite possible for the Democrats to win the popular vote by 10 million votes (a larger victory than President Obama garnered in 2008) and still lose the Electoral College.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Finally, let's have a moral discussion about racial equality. Is it fair for a women in Brooklyn, whose father was beaten by police in Alabama in the 1960s trying win suffrage for African Americans, to have her vote, today, counted at less than 1/3 the value of a rancher in lilly white Wyoming? Keeping the Electoral College has become inadvertently racist. It is time for it to go.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Raise your hand, in the 21st century, if you think one person, one vote should extend to the only place it's forbidden: the Presidential vote. We've eliminated the notion that citizen votes don't matter everywhere else in the Constitution; for every other elected office in America we have one person, one vote. <i><b>EVERY CITIZEN SHOULD HAVE PRECISELY THE SAME SAY IN THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT.</b></i> No one deserves special privileges because of where they live. It's time for equality.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> No, the Founders didn't trust the citizenry, but this isn't the 18th Century and the Founders weren't perfect. Hamilton and Madison were elitist snobs and Jefferson had children with his slaves; times have changed. A lot of folks toiled very hard to build on the original Constitution and to expand the suffrage. Eliminating the Electoral College is part of the new Civil Rights struggle. Make a joyful noise, America, and rid ourselves of this outmoded relic. Removing the Electoral College will not be easy, but that doesn't make it a less moral, or imperative, task. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Put the shoe on the other foot: if Hillary Clinton won the White House by losing the popular vote by over 2 million popular votes, the GOP would be raising a hue and cry all over this country and they wouldn't let up for a New York minute. We don't do that. We kvetch on Facebook and have a glass of wine and call it a night. That's why they win and we lose. Ape the GOP. Make noise. Write a letter to the editor of your paper. Call the Senate and ask them to support Boxer's bill to kill the Electoral Congress. And EVERY time you complain to a GOP lawmaker in the next four years, absolutely EVERY TIME, mention the popular vote totals. No, we won't overturn the Electoral College any time soon, but we can erase the notion of a GOP mandate. IF WE TRY. Given Trump's histrionics about "election fraud" over the last week, we need to let the Congress know that we expect them to disown Trump's lies and refocus them on the real inequality here: awarding the White House to the loser. So, come armed with facts, and get busy, people.</span></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-86730726315960833672016-11-26T14:00:00.000-08:002016-11-26T14:00:47.290-08:00The Electoral College: A Brief HistoryFrom Dr. Michael Green, Professor of History, UNLV<br />
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The Electoral Collage<o:p></o:p></div>
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The British Prime Minister William
Gladstone once described the United States Constitution as “the most wonderful
work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.” It IS
wonderful, but wonderful and perfect aren’t the same thing. The original
document had its flaws involving the protection and perpetuation of slavery,
and the absence of guidance for federal courts (technically, under the
Constitution, you don’t have to be a lawyer to be a Supreme Court justice—really).
Its biggest surviving flaw is the system it created for choosing a president.<o:p></o:p></div>
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When the framers emerged with the
Constitution, a woman asked one of the delegates, “Well, Doctor, what have we
got, a republic or a monarchy?” Benjamin Franklin replied, “A republic, if you
can keep it.” It certainly was no democracy. The Constitution left open the
questions of who would vote, and where and how. At the time, property-owning
adult white men comprised most of the population that could vote.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Long before he became a rapper,
Alexander Hamilton described the public as “a great beast.” Although he was
among the more conservative founding fathers on that score, his disdain for
democracy was nothing unusual. They could not envision that, in 2016, any
citizen at least 18 years old and meeting certain requirements—in some states,
not being a convicted felon, for example—would have the right to vote. Since
they made it possible to amend their own document, they might have been less
surprised that, 125 years after ratification, Americans decided that they
should elect their U.S. senators directly instead of leaving it up to their
state legislators. The expansion of suffrage has been sometimes violent and
rarely pretty, but the arc of history has bent toward its growth.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet the Electoral College survives.
It has changed from its origins, constitutionally and politically. At first,
electors met and chose the best candidates. The top vote-getter became
president, and the runner-up became vice-president. The problems became
apparent when George Washington retired and presidential elections became
competitive. In 1796, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson ran against each other
and wound up as president and vice-president respectively, despite deep
ideological differences. In 1800, Jefferson clearly was his party’s
presidential candidate, and Aaron Burr was just as clearly his running-mate,
but their electors voted equally for both of them, throwing the election into
the House of Representatives. The 12th Amendment made clear that there would be
votes for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, and that problem
was solved.<o:p></o:p></div>
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But why does it exist at all? The
traditional view has been that the founding fathers, generally if not
completely sharing Hamilton’s attitude toward democracy, wanted to leave the
decision to the elite—maybe the financial and propertied elite, but certainly
the elite who were educated and thoughtful enough to make more informed
decisions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Except that while legislators chose
electors, caucuses and popular votes soon became part of the process in most
states, and the electors often ratified those choices. This tendency grew as
political parties became more important with the rise of the Jacksonian
Democrats and Whigs by the 1830s.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet electors kept choosing
presidents, and sometimes the system ran aground. In 1876, Democrat Samuel
Tilden won the popular vote by about 250,000 nationally against Republican
Rutherford B. Hayes. But with Democrats having regained control in most
southern states, and the three southern states that Republicans still
controlled submitting two sets of returns, the result wound up in the hands of
an Electoral Commission created by Congress. The Republicans who controlled the
commission managed to decide in favor of Hayes. A dozen years later, Democrat
Grover Cleveland won the popular vote by just under 100,000 votes, but the
Electoral College gave the victory—233-168—to Republican Benjamin Harrison.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As for the 2000 election, we may
never know all that happened. Here’s what we do know: Al Gore won the popular
vote by more than 500,000 but lost the Electoral College, 271-266, after a
Supreme Court ruling on the 25 disputed electoral votes from Florida. But if
Gore had carried New Hampshire, Nevada, or his home state of Tennessee, he
would have had the required 270, and Florida wouldn’t have mattered.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Why Florida or any of the others
mattered at all may have had nothing to do with the fear of democracy the
Constitution’s framers shared. Akhil Reed Amar, one of the nation’s most distinguished
scholars of the Constitution and the Sterling Professor of Law at Yale, is
among the leaders of a group of experts arguing that the reason for the
Electoral College was not a fear of democracy, but in fact the most
undemocratic and unappealing aspect of the origins of American society.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Slavery.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Amar has noted that one of the most
important figures at the Constitutional Convention, James Wilson of
Pennsylvania, suggested the direct election of the president. The “father of
the Constitution,” James Madison, perhaps the key figure at the convention and
one of the most subtle thinkers of that gifted generation, said, “The
right of suffrage was much more diffusive [i.e., extensive] in the Northern
than the Southern States; and the latter could have no influence in the
election on the score of Negroes.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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At the convention,
the 3/5 Compromise counted five slaves as three residents for the purposes of
determining a state’s delegation in the House of Representatives. But it served
an additional purpose: a state’s vote in the Electoral College equaled the
number in its congressional delegation. Thus, the South derived an important
benefit from using the Electoral College.<o:p></o:p></div>
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How important? In
1800, when Jefferson won, he (and Burr) received 73 electoral votes to 65 for
John Adams. If each slave had not counted as three-fifths of a person, the
South would have had, Amar estimates, 13 fewer electoral votes. All of those
votes went to Jefferson. Remove them, and Adams wins a second term.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Indeed, the history
of presidential elections until the Civil War is inseparable from slavery.
Slaveowning Virginians served as president for 32 of the republic’s first 36
years. Until 1850, the Adamses were the only presidents who didn’t own at least
one slave. And in the 1850s, the two presidents who were elected, Democrats
Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan, were acceptable because they fit the
definition of a “Doughface,” a term used to describe “northern men with
southern principles.” When the North’s population, already too large for
Madison’s taste in 1787, grew enough, in 1860, Abraham Lincoln could win the
Electoral College without a southern vote. The South’s response was to secede
from the Union.<o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">As Amar noted, “After the 1800 census,
Wilson’s free state of Pennsylvania had 10% more free persons than Virginia,
but got 20% fewer electoral votes. Perversely, the more slaves Virginia (or any
other slave state) bought or bred, the more electoral votes it would receive.”
He added, “</span><span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">In light of this more complete (if less flattering) account of the
electoral college in the late 18th and early 19th century, Americans should ask
themselves whether we want to maintain this odd—dare I say
peculiar?—institution in the 21st century.”</span><span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Amar’s droll question requires an answer.
Courts have interpreted the Thirteenth Amendment, which ends slavery and
empowers Congress to enforce abolition, as giving the legislative branch the
right to attack “the badges and incidents of slavery.” The Electoral College is
not only undemocratic in an increasingly democratic republic. It also is a
badge and incident of slavery. </span><span style="font-family: "cambria" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-26998851227884227582016-11-08T17:56:00.002-08:002016-11-08T18:40:39.911-08:00Decision 2016<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">I'll be updating this blog tonight with election returns and data crunching, but first I have to run my slightly under the weather pup, Fennel, to the vet.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Just barely settled in here....</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">FL looks good; unless we see a tsunami in the Panhandle for Trump, it's looking good.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">PA and NH aren't too shabby either.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">NV turnout is about 70....it was 81% in 2012....slightly smaller turnout doesn't necessarily hurt HRC...indeed, it makes those early votes that were banked very useful (field and ground game matter).</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">And yikes, FL is tight and the panhandle is not reporting. One not so fabulous stat from the exit polls: folks who mark the economy as the number issue favor HRC 50 to 43 but trump kills for voters who mark immigration as the number one issue.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Florida will be a nail biting photo finish. Romney's highest vote margins came in places like Okaloosa, Collier, Clay, Lee and St. John's counties, in the panhandle. These counties have barely reported vote results, while the high performing urban Democratic counties are 80-90 in.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Those urban counties are bigger, but we are looking at a nail biter of 2000 year proportions, I fear.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">With the Panhandle coming in FL is now looking like a close to lost cause.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">OH, on the other hand, is looking more hopeful. Who would've guessed it. FL latino turnout was huge but african american turnout fell off, which is what is given us the bad vote spread here.<br /><br />Counties to watch for TRUMP and CLINTON (based on 2012)<br /><br />Butler, which Romney carried by 42,944<br />Warren, which Romney carried by 42,719<br />Cleremont which Romney carried by 33,193<br />Delaware which Romney carried by 22,849<br /><br />HRC must do very well in Cleveland (Cuyahoga) where Obama cashed in a 236,478 vote margin and Franklin (Columbus) which Obama carried by 117,713.<br /><br />African American turnout is crucial for HRC to carry the Buckeye state....<br /><br />At this point, HRC will win popular vote by 3.5 but may well lose electoral college.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-53193534335155758462016-11-08T14:58:00.000-08:002016-11-08T17:55:33.807-08:00Eleciton 2016 UpdatesI'll be updating this blog tonight with election returns and data crunching, but first I have to run my slightly under the weather pup, Fennel, to the vet.<br />
<br />
Just barely settled in here....<br />
<br />
FL looks good; unless we see a tsunami in the Panhandle for Trump, it's looking good.<br />
<br />
PA and NH aren't too shabby either.<br />
<br />
NV turnout is about 70....it was 81% in 2012....slightly smaller turnout doesn't necessarily hurt HRC...indeed, it makes those early votes that were banked very useful (field and ground game matter).<br />
<br />
And yikes, FL is tight and the panhandle is not reporting. One not so fabulous stat from the exit polls: folks who mark the economy as the number issue favor HRC 50 to 43 but trump kills for voters who mark immigration as the number one issue.<br />
<br />
Florida will be a nail biting photo finish. Romney's highest vote margins came in places like Okaloosa, Collier, Clay, Lee and St. John's counties, in the panhandle. These counties have barely reported vote results, while the high performing urban Democratic counties are 80-90 in.<br />
<br />
Those urban counties are bigger, but we are looking at a nail biter of 2000 year proportions, I fear.<br />
<br />
With the Panhandle coming in FL is now looking like a close to lost cause.<br />
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OH, on the other hand, is looking more hopeful. Who would've guessed it. FL latino turnout was huge but african american turnout fell off, which is what is given us the bad vote spread here.<br />
<br />Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-52017413139217301602016-10-16T17:30:00.000-07:002016-10-16T17:30:33.640-07:00Donald Trump: Mitt Romney's MonsterThe GOP is falling apart. Rabidly racist Trump rallies, boorish supporters calling for the murder of Secretary Clinton, and the abusive sexist soft core porn that is Trump's personal life are plumbing uncharted depths.<br />
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While some conservatives are reacting with horror, most incumbents are cowering, cowtowing rather than standing up to the hateful mobs. Ironically, the Trump Monster is their creation. Trump is merely an extension of the failed policies Mitt Romney brought to his disastrous campaign in 2012. No, Romney's personal life is not the cesspool of sexual assault and juvenile innuendo that characterizes Trump, but there are parallels in both men's policy prescriptions and business dealings that brought us to the mess du jour.<br />
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Neither Romney nor Trump support revisions to the tax and business laws that allow billionaires to pay fewer taxes than farm laborers or crooked mortgage bankers and Wells Fargo execs to retire without punishment after bilking their customers out of tens of millions of dollars. Mitt Romney gave the working class a patina of "family values" with a vapid main course of business as usual. Trump offers the hard sell: there are evil people out there (Mexicans and Muslims) and I'll destroy them for you (while, like any two bit third world dictator, offering more of the same business policies beneath the populist facade).<br />
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Mitt Romney's call for Mexicans to voluntarily deport themselves and his unbridled support of racist Phoenix Sheriff Joe Arpaio laid the groundwork for Trump's vociferous scapegoating of Mexicans as "job stealers" and "rapists." Both men scapegoat Mexicans, one simply musters more virulent rhetoric.<br />
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Romney, toiling at Bain Capitol, helped wealthy incompetent executives grasp golden parachutes for their failed companies, while working class and middle class employees got pink slips. Romney's clients are no different from Trump's gleeful boasts that he beat the system and is too smart to pay taxes. Romney's layoffs aren't quite as morally repellent as Trump's gaming of bankruptcy laws to rip off his small business vendors but ethically they are cut from the same filthy cloth.<br />
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Romney supported waterboarding, stereotyped the Islamic world and called for a vast expansion of the Guantanamo Bay prison. Trump wants to ban all Muslim immigrants and indeed, ban all American mosques. Both tactics would, evidence shows, lead to many more terrorists recruits. Where Romney was culturally clueless, Trump is unabashedly racist.<br />
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The difference is that in 2016, the white working class are mad as hell, and they are finally wholesale rejecting the worker-be-damned status quo of Romney/Bush/McCain/Carson/Cruz/Rubio. All that remains to appeal to the working class base are the scapegoats and the hate. Without actually changing their policies, the GOP will be at the whim of a parade of demagogues. Indeed, four years hence, we may all shudder at what rough beast, his hour come round at last, sloughs to New Hampshire to be born.<br />
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It can tough for a political party to utter the words "we were wrong," to admit that their policy agenda has faults, and by no means jibes with family values, social justice, or a healthy economy. Longing for the "good old days" can cloud good judgment. This is most symptomatic in the plans of a small rump bunch of Republicans in Utah. These folks hope (and probably pray) that unknown candidate, Evan McMullin, will win the state, that neither Trump nor Clinton will garner 270 electoral votes, and that House of Representatives will game the system and restore the ancien regime by naming McMullin our Supreme Leader. The scheme is the product of a Republican party elite so sanctimonious and smug they think that, if they lose at the ballot box, they can make an end run and cram their "ideals" down our throats. And, somehow, we'll like that. It's as out of touch with reality as the GOP's business agenda. The same cowards who refuse to pull their endorsements of Trump aren't going to vote for an unknown Mormon if Trump carried their Congressional district by 10 points. They'd find their heads severed and on pikes.<br />
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More absurdly, what these reactionaries don't comprehend is that McMlullin is more of the same: lip service to religion and family values camouflaging the same old business first policies. If that's your salvation, you are a very lost soul indeed.Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-81704067148784069292016-04-27T17:09:00.002-07:002016-05-01T17:28:34.386-07:00Ralph Nader’s Ghost: The Folly of the Protest Vote<div class="MsoNormal">
Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it. Progressives unnerved about the increasingly hysterical, overheated histrionics among supporters of Clinton and Sanders should take little solace. We’ve been here before. In 2000, it was Ralph Nader vs. Al Gore. And it was ugly. By the eve of the 2000 election, if I had had a dollar every time I heard the Nader camp's refrain “Bush and Gore are the SAME. There is NO difference” I could have comfortably retired to a seaside villa in Sicily. The Nader/Gore split became a gargantuan s*** show. Fully formed, highly educated adults became raving adolescents, happy hours were anything but, and online forums disintegrated into intelligence-free zones of name calling and sniping.</div>
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Ultimately, Nader’s Raiders did just well enough (2.75% nationally) to tip the election to George W. Bush. The Nader vote cost Gore two states: Florida and New Hampshire. With the inauguration of President Bush, the rift was “repaired”: both Nader and Gore supporters together suffered policy loss after policy loss for eight long and damaging years. </div>
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History’s lesson: Um, Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore weren’t ideological twins after all.</div>
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But did we learn or did we forget? If I had a dollar every time someone who once spouted the “Bush = Gore” meme later admitted they might have been a trifle mistaken, I’d be penniless. The ideological right and the ideological left have few things in common but they do share this: neither side ever admits a mistake.</div>
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As Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders head into the final stages of Campaign 2016, the parallels to Nader’s doomed Presidential run are becoming ever more apparent. Both Nader and Sanders started with very upbeat campaigns, addressing real issues, long on optimism but short on specifics. Team Clinton argues that Sanders’ plans are cartoonish, simplistic and would never pass in a divided Congress. Given my public policy bent, I favor the pragmatic and detailed over the optimistic but dangerously vague. I don’t doubt Sanders’ sincerity on the issues for a moment, however, and I will fight like a tiger to keep the White House in Democratic hands regardless of the eventual nominee. </div>
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As the 2000 campaign progressed, and Nader faced abysmal polling numbers, his campaign’s optimism morphed into something uglier, solipsistic, and cynical. If you weren’t for Nader, you weren’t just against him, you were either stupid or an evil shill of the plutocrats.</div>
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Since last week’s New York Primary, in which Team Sanders was dealt a devastating defeat, we are seeing some alarming and familiar signs. Sanders original pledge to work hard for the Democrats regardless of the outcome of the primaries has been cast to the wind by some of his most senior staff. Now, we hear that they’ll fight for the nomination even if they lose the delegate count and the popular vote. The Sanders team has, like Nader before them, become infected with conspiracy theories. Primaries and caucuses are not lost, they are stolen. Super delegates don’t make up their own minds, they are merely puppets of the DNC. And the DNC has the evil powers and ill intent of Voldemort.</div>
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Recently, we see more and more Sanders supporters proudly proclaiming they will sit out this election, or cast a “protest” vote for a minor third party candidate—many of the same people who just a few short months ago were vowing to wholeheartedly support the eventual Democratic nominee. One of the more vociferous folks on my Facebook feed, is now proudly proclaiming: “I can afford a protest vote, I live in New York”. The pledge to support the nominee, it seems, carried some fine print: we’ll support the nominee but only if the nominee’s name is Bernie Sanders. That’s a bit ironic for a campaign obsessed with “lies.”</div>
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In 2000, a vote for Ralph Nader didn’t turn out to be a vote for the progressive cause in any state. Nader’s core supporters erred in keeping a doomed campaign alive across the country, and they siphoned just enough votes to put Bush in the White House. So, could Sanders’ supporters cost the Democrats the White House if they choose to sit on their hands? It’s a good definite “maybe.” Progressives delight in proclaiming Donald Trump a joke, but six months ago we all scoffed that he had even a remote shot at the Republican nomination. It doesn’t take much of an attenuation in votes on the progressive side to send a couple of swing states to the other team in the Midwest battlegrounds, particularly if our team repeats the ridiculous internecine civil war we fought amongst ourselves in 2000. This year, the sniping doesn’t stop at the top of the ticket: Sander’s pledge to sue the Democratic Party for raising money for Democratic Congressional candidates is many things; a path to recapturing the House and the Senate isn’t one of them. It’s a tactic more indicative of a bitter curmudgeon than a principled progressive.</div>
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What I find ethically troubling, from the mouthier folks on the Team Sanders campaign, is the notion that yes, the White House is better off in the hands of any Democrat, but they, personally, can afford a protest vote. So, the rest of us, who are either stupid or shills of the plutocrats are forced to do their dirty work by supporting the Democratic ticket while they occupy the supposed moral high ground. This crass nonsense cost us the White House in 2000, and I’m having a difficult time imagining a scenario where it is helpful in 2016. </div>
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Secretary Clinton currently leads Senator Sanders by nearly three million popular votes. Perhaps, before Team Sanders urges their supporters to steam off in a huff of protest votes they might consider WHY so many folks didn’t see the Sanders’ message as the start of a revolution. The 70% to 80% of minority voters casting ballots for Clinton aren’t all stupid stooges of the plutocrats. Maybe they just see the world a little differently. Maybe more voters really do favor the pragmatic approach. Neither Clinton nor Sanders is the perfect candidate, but neither are evil, either, and a vote for either of them is far better than a vote for no one. </div>
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Elections have consequences. Ironically, Team Nader recognized that in the final months of the 2000 campaign. By late September, groups of Nader supporters were flocking online peddling “vote swap” schemes. I live in Michigan, it’s a swing state, but you live in New York, a blue state, so you vote for Nader and I’ll vote for Gore. But vote swaps were ultimately insincere; Nader supporters voted for Nader in all states. And we all know how that turned out.</div>
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Let’s all take a long breath and consider the specter of President Donald Trump, as the Wraith of Ralph, the Ghost of Nader, hovers overhead. </div>
<br />
<a href="https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2797782/Ideas-Trump-front-page.pdf">https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2797782/Ideas-Trump-front-page.pdf</a><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Elections do have consequences. Putting Trump in the White House doesn’t capture the moral high ground, it’s playing the fool. We played that asinine card in 2000. Do we really want to play it again?</span></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-20162879467052381452015-12-06T17:33:00.001-08:002015-12-06T17:33:09.463-08:00The NRA: The Myth of the Money Monster<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br />
Ever try to persuade a friend to take action on gun control? Far too often, you'll hear
that all is lost, and that our Voldemort, doing business as the National Rifle
Association, rules the world with insurmountable mountains of cash and power. Folks offer the usual litany of excuses for their apathy:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Letters < Money
(Sadly)<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">If there is no check they
will ignore you <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">If we didn't get action
after Newtown we never will<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">These quotes are real,
from my online hustings, and one of them comes from a leader in the progressive
online community. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The NRA is indeed a
wealthy and established lobby nationally, but before our grassroots
unilaterally disarm we might want to take a hard, iconoclastic look at the
facts.<br />
<br />
Consider Barney Frank. Representative Frank’s District encompassed a great deal
of white, working class turf. For much of his career, over 50% of his
constituents supported gun rights. Frank supported gun control, and he nevertheless
managed to stay in office for over 30 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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In his biography, <i><u>Fran</u></i>k, he
writes<i>: I have never seen an NRA public
demonstration. They do not have marches…liberals who try to comfort themselves with
the notion that NRA wins legislative battles because of their vast campaign
contributions are engaged in self-deception and self-justification. The NRA
wins at the ballot box, not in the streets and not by the checkbook…They urge
all of their adherents to get on the voting rolls. They are diligent to the
point of obsession in making sure that elected officials hear from everyone in their
constituencies who oppose any limits on guns, especially when a relevant
measure is being considered, and they then do an extraordinary job of informing
their supporters of how those officials cast their votes.</i><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Let’s now look at the NRA’s
money. Tracking political money is always a bit of a headache, but data
compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics helps untangle the thicket of
campaign finance reports. The NRA is a hydra-headed beast, and it is not the
only group spending money to keep us awash in firearms. The major players are
as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> *</span></span><b><i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>The NRA (C4): </i></b>This is
the group that takes individual donations and issues the membership cards. Ask
your evil uncle what’s in his wallet and he’ll show one to you. The NRA runs a
Political Action Committee (PAC), the NRA Political Victory Fund, which pours
money into federal Congressional races. <br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <b><i> *The NRA Civil Rights
Defense Fund (C3):</i></b> The lawyers. These folks provide pro bono work on litigation
that might, eventually, shape the federal courts' interpretation of gun laws
and gun regulation. At any given time, these folks are assisting in legal cases
in upwards of 30 states.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><i> *The NRA Institute for Legislative Action:</i></b>
Rather like the conservative ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council),
this group keeps an eye on state laws. This is where the lobbyists live.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><i>*The NRA Foundation:</i></b> This
is a non profit 501(C)(3) that gives money to a host of sportsmen
organizations, and groups as diverse as the 4H and the Boy Scouts. They
encourage the recreational use of firearms.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><i>*Other pro-gun groups not
affiliated with the NRA: </i></b>The National Association for Gun Rights, Safari Club
International, Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, Gun
Owners of America, Dallas Safari Club, the Boone and Crockett Club, and the
National Shooting Sports Foundation.</span></div>
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<br />
Now, let’s look at the NRA’s opponents: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <b><i> *Americans for
Responsible Solutions:</i></b> ARS is a Political Action Committee (PAC) founded by
former Representative Gabby Giffords after she survived an assassination attempt
in a Tucson parking lot. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b><i> *</i></b></span></span><b><i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b style="font-style: italic;">Independence, USA</b><i><b>:</b></i> A PAC
founded by former New York City Mayor, Michel Bloomberg.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b><i>*</i></b></span></span><b><i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Everytown for Gun
Safety: </i></b>Another Bloomberg group that focuses on legislation, often at the city
or state level.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b><i>*</i></b></span></span><b><i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Brady Campaign to
Prevent Gun Violence: </i></b>A group founded after the assassination attempt on
President Reagan. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><b><i>*Other gun control
groups: </i></b>These include Sandy Hook Promise, the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence,
and Americans for the Protection of Children.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">THE BOTTOM LINE:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Political money comes in
three flavors. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent
Expenditure Campaigns:</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> This is money spent for or against a candidate
by an outside organization. The organization can knock on doors, make phone
calls, send mail and run television or other media ads for or against a
candidate. The outside group may not, however, coordinate directly with the actual
campaign. If you see an ad on television
that ends with “sponsored by the NRA” or “paid for by the Brady Campaign”, it’s
part of an Independent Expenditure.<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct
Contribution: </span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">These funds are in the
form of direct contributions to candidate’s campaign war chests—the NRA writing
a check to Mitch McConnell’s campaign, for example.<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Legislative
Lobbying:</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> Money spent in lobbying
Congress or Federal agencies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">2014
Spending: Gun Advocates and Gun Control Groups</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Group Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Spending Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>2014 Total</i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro-Gun Rights<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$28.6 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Gun Control<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$13.6 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro-Gun Rights<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Conbribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$2.1 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Gun Control<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$400,000<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro-Gun Rights<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Lobbying<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$9.2 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Gun Control<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Lobbying<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$1.3 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">So, in 2014, pro gun
groups spent $39.9 million in campaigns and lobbying while gun control groups
spent $15.3 million. The gun control groups, while outspent well over two to
one, are gradually closing the spending gap over time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br />
For comparison, let us now look at spending by top environmental organizations.
Next Gen Climate Change is a San Francisco based group founded by liberal
billionaire Tom Steyer. The League of Conservation Voters is best known for its
scorecard, which grades members of Congress on their environmental voting
records. The Sierra Club is one of the nation’s oldest environmental advocates.
These groups aren’t the only outside organizations spending on federal
elections for environmental advocacy, but they are three of the largest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br />
<b><i>2014
Spending: Leading Environmental Groups</i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Group Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Spending Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>2014 Total</i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Next Gen Climate
Change<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$19.5 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">League of Conservation
Voters<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$19.1 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Sierra Club<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$1.6 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Next Gen Climate
Change<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">League of Conservation
Voters<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$4.9 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Sierra Club<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$4.3 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Compare the spending to
just a few leading environmental groups to that of all the pro-gun groups:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">2014 Spending: Guns
Versus Greens</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Group Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>Spending Type<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>2014 Total</i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro Gun<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$28.6 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro Environment<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Independent Campaign<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$40.2 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro Gun<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 159.6pt;" valign="top" width="213">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$2.1 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Pro Environment<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Direct Contribution<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">$9.2 million<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">So, while gun groups
threw $30.7 million at Congressional candidates, the top few environmental
groups spent $50.1 million. So, if money is all that matters, why isn’t
Congress teeming with environmentalists eager to pass tough climate change
legislation?<br />
</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br />
Answer: Money doesn’t matter as much in the real world as it does in the
popular imagination. Barney Frank is right.<br />
<br />
This becomes clearer when looking at this money in a larger perspective. <b><i>Americans
spent more money in the 2014 midterm election than the total spent in the 2004
Presidential Election, a whopping $3.7 billion</i></b> <b><i>(that’s just on campaigns, not on
lobbying).</i></b> So, while gun money seems huge as an isolated figure, the
total pro gun expenditures on Independent Campaigns and Direct Contributions comprised
roughly 8 tenths of 1 percent of total campaign spending in 2014! <br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The NRA wins and we lose
because they know how to lobby. The NRA wins and we lose because they know how
to engage their members. The NRA wins and we lose because NRA members never say
things like:<br />
<br />
<b><i>Letters
< Money (Sadly)<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">If there is no check they
will ignore you <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">If we didn't get action
after Newtown we never will<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br />
<br />
So, what can YOU do?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <i><b>S</b></i></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><b><i>et up a VISIT with your Senators and Representatives</i></b> if they
oppose reasonable gun control legislation. They see NRA members regularly, but they seldom see us. Round up your friends and go as a group.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i> Help close the spending gap
between the NRA and the gun control groups. </i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">Make a donation. Everytown for Gun
Safety is doing excellent work, passing local gun control legislation that has
legs. Americans For Responsible Solutions is a savvy PAC, that helps ameliorate
NRA money in individual races.NRA fills its coffers with contributions from
working and middle class Americans. We could out-fundraise them easily, if we would
only bother to try.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> Share
this blog link with your naysayer friends.</span></i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> The NRA wins with grassroots support. We lose
without it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i> Quit whimpering and gear
up for a long term fight.</i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Nearly nine years passed between the day Rosa Parks
refused to give up her seat on a Montgomery, Alabama bus and the passage of the
Civil Rights Act. </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i> Call your county and
state Republican Party offices.</i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Tell them you are an independent thinker and
you focus on candidate qualifications when casting your vote, but you will not
vote for candidates who are in bed with the NRA.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i> Every time you see a
post on Facebook supporting gun control, tell them to take REAL action.</i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Venting
steam on Facebook is slactivism. Its sound and fury, signifying nothing. </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<b style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i> Deal with online trolls
effectively.</i></b><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Don’t argue with them, </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">just
say, “Wow, you are so insane I’ve decided to give a check to a gun control
group in the amount of $25 dedicated to you.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><i style="font-weight: bold;"> Round up a dozen friends
and attend the Town Meetings hosted by your Congressman</i></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">. Get the name of the
staff member assigned to the gun issue. After EVERY mass shooting, call that
staffer.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">By doing nothing, you meet
the Monster every day when you gaze into your bathroom mirror. In the time it takes to post a couple of angry
messages on Facebook, you could donate $25 bucks to Everytown, or pick up a
phone and leave a message for a staffer. Don’t get mad, get busy.</span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-63680796427526520292015-11-16T18:09:00.001-08:002015-11-16T18:09:32.373-08:00The Warmonger and the Smug Shrug<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Domestic reaction to the tragic events in Paris this week leaves little doubt
about the decrepit state of American politics. While liberals and conservatives
do not shoot one another, their conflicts are no less anti-intellectual and
insane than the ancient rivalries that are roiling today’s Middle East. The
right decries President Obama’s “pacifism”. The Ann Coulter/Rush
Limbaugh/NRA crowd posit that to end terrorism what the world needs now are
guns, more guns while bigoted Republican Governors in Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan
and Texas assert they’ll close their borders to all Syrian
refugees. On the left, the Internet is full of memes bashing former President
Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney, endlessly re-litigating Bush’s
decision to invade Iraq, and blaming all present and historical ills in the
Middle East on the actions of an early 21<sup>st</sup> Century American
President.</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Sadly, neither left nor the right
have any solutions to the dual foreign policy conundrums of terrorism and the
Middle East’s descent into anarchy. Heroes on both sides have made
mistakes. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq blew the lid off the always simmering
Sunni/Shia conflict and provided a breeding ground for fanatic extremists.
President Obama’s unsure, tenuous policies in Syria and Libya further
destabilized the region and his diplomatic agenda has been lackluster and at
times contradictory. Both left and right were foolhardy in placing too much faith
in the Arab Spring, in which fragile democratic flowers were crushed under the
boots of age-old tribal factions and religious sects. <br />
<br />
Both sides have done some things right, too. The senior President Bush defanged
the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait by deftly building a gigantic multi-national
coalition, and President Obama helped to reduce the threat of a nuclear Iran with
diplomatic aplomb. Yet partisans insist upon a binary world: their team must
always be on the side of the angels, while their opponents must be all evil. In
the convoluted, gray-scale world of foreign policy, that’s a stupid world view.
On this, both the left and right are a Confederacy of Dunces, in which Rush
Limbaugh is no less misguided than a liberal political science professor at an
Ivy League University.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The right are WARMONGERS:
bomb, baby bomb is the only solution proffered. The irony here is
obvious. Bomb baby bomb doesn’t change hearts and minds, regardless of whether
the target is Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq or Syria. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The left offer little more than a
SMUG SHRUG: the solution, we are told, is old fashioned isolationism, ignoring
ISIL and withdrawing within our borders whilst leaving the European Union to
sort it all out, and oh well, terrorism isn’t that big a threat, anyway. The
irony here is that just HOURS before the Paris bombing a Politico investigative
story outlining how Bush and Cheney allegedly ignored intelligence warnings of the
impending 9/11 attack was pounced on by liberal Facebook and blog posts and
by left-leaning cable talking heads. Bush and Cheney failed, it seems, because
they were…um…too isolationist in their dealings with the Middle East. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a huge
mistake but we must not forget that Arab factionalism, religious extremism and
fanaticism are not an invention of the United States. The intense hatred
amongst the Sunni and Shia Muslim sects dates from the Battle of Siffin in the year 657, not from the months leading up to September 11, 2001. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Even before the US invasion of Iraq, the Shia, a minority Muslim sect, was
already seething at the hands of Sunni totalitarianism. Much like Europe in the
years before the First World War, conflict was coming. Whether the match that
ignited this mess was ultimately struck by Bush’s missteps in Iraq, the spread
of the Taliban from Afghanistan to neighboring states, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, or the rapid souring of
the Arab Spring (weakening Sunni Egypt vis a vis a resurgent Shia Iraq) is largely
a moot point. The Arab world is on fire. What we need is a policy to deal with
it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Since the Paris bombing, the left has
erupted in a Civil War of Words to determine who among them are the most
politically correct. Those who changed their Facebook profile backgrounds to
mirror the French flag are told they are racist, ignoring the pain and
suffering of the victims of terrorist attacks in Lebanon in the days before the
Paris violence. Those flying the French flag on Facebook offer the
counter-accusation of “Grief Shaming." The only common ground here appears
to be racial insensitivity toward the Russian victims aboard the downed
jetliner, who garner zero sympathy from either camp. Newsflash. None of this
online nonsense is any solace to any victim of terrorist violence, and none of it will do a damn thing to promote adult discussions to give us real policy solutions in the real world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Roughly a week before the Paris
bombing, President Carter published an op-ed in the <u>New York Times</u> on
possible diplomatic solutions in the Middle East. Before the Paris attack
interrupted the methodology, I was running an online test. I posted links to
Carter’s article on 25 randomly selected public liberal forums. On the same day, on the same
forums, I also posted a meme showing Bush and Cheney swinging from a tree. The
Carter link drew a few snide comments, of the smug shrug none-of-this-will-work
variety, while the baboon meme garnered hundreds of gleeful comments (and a
small but lively coterie of right wing trolls). The descent into the
anti-intellectual abyss is pretty much complete on this issue. Not only do
progressives not care to have adult policy discussions, they get snippy if you suggest maybe they should.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">You may
say the Internet isn’t the place to make such judgments, that one’s snappy comment
in an online forum or on Facebook or Twitter proves nothing. Then why not
search for commentary from those on the left in reputable newspapers and
journals for proposed solutions? Alas, you see more diatribes and left versus right
sniping. Discussion on Presidential campaign sites, where we should be
discussing issues, are the deepest, vilest cesspools of all. No matter where
one searches, President Carter ends up looking lonely, indeed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The right, meanwhile, is issuing
racist bellicose diatribes, as a dozen candidates, half of whom likely don’t
know the difference between Sunni and Shia Islam, seek to solidify their poll
numbers in Iowa. <br />
<br />
And so it goes. Just one of the hundreds of memes, posts and vitriolic
diatribes on my Facebook feed rang true this week: “For every complex problem,
there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” It’s attributed to H. L.
Mencken, but it was on the Internet, so who knows who said it.</span></div>
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Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-78150296876245602862015-10-07T17:22:00.001-07:002015-10-07T17:22:47.819-07:00Oy, Canada!<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you have ever uttered the words “If [Candidate X] is elected, I’m moving to
Canada,” you might want to review recent Canadian history before you toss your
bong and your Birkenstocks into the backpack:</span><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<!--[endif]--></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada has
been run by the Conservative Party since 2006.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada backed out of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in 2011.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada scrapped their national long-form census because the Prime Minister felt it too
personally intrusive.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada wiped out years of CO2 emission reductions by mining tar sands for oil,
with national CO2 pollution levels now set to rise for many years to come.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada slashed taxes, creating soaring deficits; Conservatives use the “deficit problem” as an excuse to skimp on social services and infrastructure.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada embarked
on a prison building binge while increasing mandatory sentences for a host of
criminal offenses.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada scuttled their national gun registry.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada
banned government scientists from discussing climate change research with the media.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But at least they have a fair voting and political system….or…er:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">* Canada is the proud home of Conservative operative Michael Sona,
convicted in 2011 for placing robocalls directing liberal voters to the
wrong polling places in Ontario.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">*Canada’s Conservative party carefully pre-screens reporters to cover rallies
and restricts them to five questions.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Canada took a hard right turn in 2006, when Stephen Harper’s Conservatives took
the helm, riding the population boom in Alberta, the Texas of the North, where
oil and cattle go hand in hand with wild west libertarianism. Harper's rise was the culmination of years of western resentment to Canada's liberal east coast establishment.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While the Canadian right may not rival the level of lunacy we see in our own Tea Party, they have had memorable moments. The Canadian Alliance, formed in 2000, emerged as a western alternative to the more staid, buttoned-down east coast Conservative Party. Alliance leader Stockwell Day, a flamboyant preacher turned politico, refused to campaign on Sundays, believed the world was 6,000 years old, and that man co-existed with dinosaurs. Liberal reporters delighted in mockingly humming the theme to the "Flintstones" as his campaign bus, "Prayer Force One," lumbered across the heartland. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Alliance Party platform contained a number of nods to direct democracy. The party advocated national referendums on any issue receiving petition signatures from 3% of the Canadian electorate. Liberals accused the Alliance of using this scheme as a means for pushing unpopular measures onto the national ballot. Comedian Rick Mercer lampooned the effort on the television show "This Hour Has 22 Minutes." He organized his viewers, gathering the requisite number of signatures for an initiative to change Stockwell Day's first name to "Doris."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Failing to achieve electoral success outside the west, the Alliance, in December, 2003, merged with the mainline Canadian Conservative Party.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While the US left pines for a multi-party system, Canada proves it’s no
guarantee of a liberal nirvana. Some Parliamentary systems apportion seats based upon the party's overall national polling
percentage, so 50% of the vote guarantees 50% of the seats, etc. Canada’s system is
first-past-the-post, so the party with the most votes in an individual
Parliamentary district (called a “riding”) wins the seat. Trouble is, Canada now has just one main Conservative Party, while liberals can pick
between the Liberal Party, the (ironically more liberal) New Democratic Party
(NDP), or, for those with a Francophile separatist bent, the Bloc Quebecois. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">With one party on the right and three on the left, the liberal vote splinters and the Conservatives prevail. If you think Bush v.
Gore was exquisitely undemocratic, consider this: Canadian Conservatives captured a majority of seats in Parliament
with just 36.3% of the popular vote in 2006, 37.7% in 2008, and 39.6% in 2011.</span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On October 19, Canada has its next national parliamentary election. Stephen Harper is opposed by Liberal Party head Justin Trudeau (eldest son of
former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau), and NDP leader Tom
Mulcair , a dual French-Canadian citizen. Heading into election day, the polls are showing a
three way tie. So, will
Canada veer left again, by putting the NDP or the Liberals in power? Or, will
Harper win with yet another liberal split?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A great deal is at stake.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Seriously, if Harper and the Conservatives carry the day, where will we run to escape
President Trump?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">#####</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You can receive notices about new posts on the Data Driven Beltway on
Twitter @MichaelAgosta1 and, I’ll be live Tweeting the October GOP debate.</span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-45282944373610657122015-09-30T15:33:00.001-07:002015-09-30T15:33:23.090-07:00Is the Dawn of The Donald the Death of Democracy?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">I normally dislike political blogs that merely comment on existing media
pieces, but I’m making an exception.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
piece by Ezra Klein has been re-posted oodles of times on the Internet:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/9/28/9407889/american-politics-changing">http://www.vox.com/2015/9/28/9407889/american-politics-changing</a> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Klein asserts that we are entering a Brave New Political World in which outsiders
will dominate our political landscape, because the parties have lost control of
the message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Outsiders will spread their
own messages from a plethora of media outlets and the Internet, and Super PACs <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>will reduce the role of the party as a financial
crutch. So, does this environment favor the loon over the more moderate
professional lawmaker? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are we really
facing a world in which guys with monikers like “The Donald” are serious
contenders? Are parties dead? Or, is Klein failing to look at past elections
when he draws conclusions about today? </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
To give Klein his due, outsiders are playing a dominant role this year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider this quote: “A lot of the people on
the net have given up on traditional politics precisely because it was about
television and the ballot box, and they had no way to shout back. What we’ve
given people is a way to shout back, and we listen — they don’t even have to
shout anymore.”</span><br />
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</div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Said by…you guessed it! Senator Bernie Sanders!</span>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
Actually, no. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is from Governor
Howard Dean from January, 2004, back in the halcyon days when Meet Up gave Dean
millions of low dollar donors and he soared in early polls. Pundits declared a
new era of Internet-driven campaigns, crowning Dean’s consultant Joe Trippi a king…until
the dream crashed and burned in the Iowa caucuses.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">How about this quote:<br />
<br />
"So long as they continue to reward the very power brokers whose avarice
contributed to the destitution and perpetuated social injustice, the Democrats
might as well be Republicans."<br />
<br />
When did Senator Sanders say this? He didn’t. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The speaker here is Ralph Nader, from his
post-2000 election book, <u>Crashing the Party</u>. Nader was the classic outsider from
the left, calling Al Gore and George Bush “Tweedledee and Tweedledum, they look
and act the same, so it doesn’t matter which you get.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
So, insurgent outsiders on the left are nothing new, especially in the era of
open primaries.<br />
<br />
But what about the trio of new insurgents on the right, (The) Donald Trump, Dr.
Ben Carson, and Ms. Carly Fiorina? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure,
Trump is leading most polls, but support is hovering at 20% down from a peak of
30%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, is this radically new?<br />
<br />
Consider this quote:<br />
<br />
“What I can't stand are the back-room deals. They're all in on it, the insider
game, the establishment game—this is what we're running against.”<br />
<br />
Trump? Fiorina? Carson? No, this is Patrick Buchanan, who won the Republican New
Hampshire primary over George Bush in 1992 with 38% of the vote.<br />
<br />
And finally, we have Ross Perot, in his 1992 third party bid. The feisty,
give-em-hell Texan claimed he could “balance the deficit without breaking a
sweat” and thumped both the Democrats and the Republicans for ratifying the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) calling job losses to Mexico “a giant
sucking sound.” Like the other insurgents, Perot received outsized media
attention and softball press coverage for months. Early poll leader? How about a
late poll leader! In June, 1992, after Bill Clinton had secured the Democratic
nomination, an NBC News poll of 1,500 likely voters had Perot at 38% to Bush’s
30% to Clinton’s 26%. Ultimately, Perot garnered 19% in the November, 1992
general election.<br />
<br />
Klein’s argument that 2015 represents a new media landscape is absurd. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Internet is not new, nor is cable. Nader ran
most of his Presidential bid in 2000 online as did Dean in 2004. GOP outsiders
prefer to go where their base is listening: talk radio. Talk radio has been the
choice of the conservative working and middle class for decades. Ross Perot
self-funded and bought his own 30 minute network prime time infomercials. None
of these outsiders needed the party in any conventional sense, either for financial
backing or messaging support.<br />
<br />
Finally, the outsider argument really only applies to the GOP this cycle. <span class="yiv2886690855">There are no outsiders on the Democratic side. Both
Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders are political old hands; Sanders has been
in Congress since 1991. Neither campaign is lacking skilled staff, although
Clinton maintains a healthy financial advantage. Sure, Sanders is running to
the left but a quarter century career in Congress hardly qualifies him as an
outsider.</span><br />
<br />
Insurgents and outsiders are not new and they are not just a phenomenon of recent
history. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bull Moose, anyone? But what is
different today?<br />
<br />
Congressional gridlock is driving the outsiders this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congressional approval ratings are at 10%, an
absurdly low number, and one bound to have political consequences. If a
candidate can tap that anger, he or she will see a bump in polling numbers. Substance
matters far less than tone. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not
what Trump says, it’s how he says it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
GOP <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>has been out of power for 8 long
years and their base hates President Obama with the heat of the surface of the
Sun. Where the GOP failed was in its internal messaging. Party leaders kept the
base inflamed, but by promising action of on a host of items they could never
deliver on: we will repeal Obamacare, we will eliminate Planned Parenthood, we
will fight to end same sex marriage, we will lower taxes, we will sack the Iran
nuclear deal, we will vanquish Obama and his minions. But the Republican
Congress can do next to nothing with a Democrat in the White House. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Frustrated by gridlock they don’t completely
understand, a small but noisy cohort of Tea Party activists capture
Congressional seats. They add to the gridlock, causing rifts even within GOP
ranks. Their sole legislative tactic is the government shutdown, which is
wildly unpopular even among most Republican voters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, the rhetoric grows hotter as the gridlock
grows more entrenched. <br />
<br />
The left is angry, too. President Obama, like most Presidents, campaigned in
poetry but governed in prose. The left, in 2008, envisioned a grand New Deal,
which was never going to pass muster even with 60 Democratic Senators. Not all
60 of those Senators were ideologically on the left or in lockstep with them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once the Democrats were blown out in the 2010
Congressional midterms, progress slowed. The left wants dramatic action on
climate change, jail to the bankers, and free college tuition. Ultimately, President
Obama can do very little with a Republican dominated Congress.<br />
<br />
Ironically, as a response to gridlock we are electing ever more ideologically
driven member of Congress. Which adds to the gridlock. Neither the Democrats
nor the Republicans will ever completely vanquish one another. Until we can
start getting along again, the cycle will continue. We cannot govern by base
support alone.<br />
<br />
THAT is what we are seeing in the 2016 election, and it is alarming. Gridlock
is our Brave New Political World.<br /></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">#####</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">You can receive notices about new posts on the Data Driven Beltway on
Twitter @MichaelAgosta1 and, I’ll be live-tweeting the October GOP debate.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-18222734196257232032015-09-22T17:53:00.000-07:002015-09-22T17:53:05.907-07:00Who Can? The VatiCAN!<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Pope has landed in Washington, DC. What can we expect?
An anathema directed at Mr. Trump might be too much to wish for, but one can
pray. Visits by dignitaries are as
common in DC as rallies and ruckuses. Most accomplish very little. They generate
a press story or two, our local constabulary adroitly keeps the crowds
corralled and the traffic moving, and we quickly return to the daily grind. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Will Pope Francis break the mold?</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Religion in America today looks nothing like the sweeping,
hope-filled crusades of Dr. Martin Luther King’s day. The dulcet tones of “We Shall Overcome” are distant
echoes. Today, far too much of our religious dialog is in the realm of the ideological right; a bile-laden
landscape with sweaty condemnations reminiscent of Jonathan Edwards’ “Sinners
in the Hands of An Angry God.” There is
a religious left; you find them huddled in a few hundred Unitarian
congregations clustered on the coasts, dutifully singing multi-lingual hymns.
But the Unitarians have little political power and less social influence, aside
from providing political cover for atheist politicians: the Unis will neither
confirm nor deny whether or not an individual is on their membership rolls.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But Pope Francis is different. Maybe, just maybe, this visit
will be different, too. We have a Pope who knows how to Pope. He is single-handedly shifting the Catholic church’s focus from “abortion, abortion, abortion, I did not sleep with that
male child, abortion” to “love the poor”, and “don’t plunder the planet, for
Pete’s sake, it’s the only one we’ve got.” Pope Francis is breathing new life
into old time religion, where the meek inherit the Earth and the adherents lead
with love.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Maybe Pope Francis will soften the bile on the
religious right, re-energize a giant, but soporific, American Catholic church
and bring the left back in from the Godless cold. The left, of late, reviles all religion, apparently forgetting that Martin Luther King's first name was technically "Reverend." The left shed crocodile tears
over Ben Carson’s Islam-bashing all the while assuming, carte blanche, that any
Republican professing a belief in God would govern as a medieval theocrat. The left’s
oft repeated mantra “Your religion ends where my rights begin” is no less
intolerant of religion than “A Muslim should not be President.”</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br />
Pope Francis is a breath of fresh air, and may help bring America to a
religious place more sane, and more indicative of what our Founder’s intended. Separation
of Church and State was not penned as an atheist’s manifesto</span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">.</span><br />
<br /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">
Francis’s remarks over the coming days will likely unsettle both the left
(abortion is a sin) and the right (climate change is a moral imperative). That’s
a good thing. The moral absolutism in both camps is as obnoxious as it is
bankrupt. But we still have a long way
to go. The Catholic hierarchy remains stuffed with arch-conservative Bishops. Francis’s
visit will not tone down the nativist crap emanating from the Trump camp, nor
the anti-Islamic rhetoric spewing from Carson’s pie hole. Pastors who lived by
the bile will likely die by it, but maybe their power will be attenuated.
Maybe, just maybe, Pope Francis’s injection of love and compassion will take
root here and there. One can hope, and, dare I utter it, pray.</span></span>Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-52118649414106755132013-10-15T17:56:00.000-07:002013-10-15T17:56:18.460-07:00Don't Get Mad, Get ACTIVE<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Angry about Congressional inaction? Frustrated sanity is
gone from the US House? Find yourself shouting at your computer or the
television?</div>
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<br /></div>
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Well, we have two more days until a full blown government default. I’ve worked in politics for almost
two decades. I don’t resort to hyperbole and I call politicians by their
surnames, not juvenile puns, but I will say this: WE ARE FACING A PROFOUND
THREAT TO OUR FUTURE IF WE GO OFF THE FISCAL CLIFF. That isn’t hypberbole, it’s a fact. <br />
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We need to get busy. Here's how to do it.</div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">DO:<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>CALL THE GOP NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: </i></b>Call the GOP in DC at: <span class="usercontent">202-863-8500</span> Hit 2 to get to the fundraisers. They
will always answer the phone, because you can't raise money if you don't pick up the line. The GOP House Members are letting you go to voicemail, so focus on the party. Your
message: " I will never vote for a Republican again. The GOP’s actions are
dangerous to the financial future of the republic." Don't sound like a liberal and don't resort to name calling. The person at the other end of the phone should not be able to tell who you typically vote for. What they should parse: you are angry and that anger is directly squarely at the House GOP.<br />
<br />
Don’t hang up after 30 seconds, it's ineffectual. Engage the person who answers the phone--when they are talking to you they can't raise money. Ask
them if they feel any moral qualms working for the GOP while 800,000 Americans
go without a paycheck and all of our retirement funds are about to take a kick
in the pants with a default. Their stock answer "I am just the messenger." Your retort: "That's immoral. You don't have to work for an organization destroying the country. Shame on you." Make the conversation last as long as you can and keep
it to morals. Talk angrily, but SOFTLY. It's effective. Tell them you are worried the GOP is destroying the country, destroying children's future and destroying FAMILY VALUES. Use THEIR language, you will have a greater impact upon them. You can
do this on your lunch hour, and no one is too busy. DO IT. It does matter.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span class="usercontent"><b><i>PAY A VISIT TO YOUR LOCAL GOP CONGRESSIONAL
REPRESENTATIVE:</i></b> If you can, grab a dozen friends, make signs, and go
down to the local office of a GOP Congressional Representative tomorrow. Call the media
and tell them you will be there. Dress NICELY—the message you want to send: you
represent moral, family values America, not the GOP. If interviewed, say ”the
GOP is damaging our children’s future. This is immoral.” If you live in a GOP
free zone, go and picket the local office of the local GOP. Same message, same opportunity to make the
news.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><b><i>SEND AN EMAIL REPLY TO ONLINE PETITIONS</i></b>: Ask
the organization in question to organize in person events and to have them call
the GOP. The message: "at the juncture, online action is really just inaction."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><b><i>SHARE THIS POST ON FACEBOOK: </i></b> The Tea Party rallied Sunday in DC. They had a
thousand folks. Our rally today had maybe 24. WE NEED TO GET BUSY. fI don't normally push this, but please, please, share. We are running out of time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="usercontent"><b><i>IF YOU LIVE IN DC:</i></b> If there is no solution to this mess, show up on the sidewalk at the Rayburn House Office building tomorrow after work tomorrow. Be prepared to bellow, and bellow loudly. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">DO NOT:<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>SIGN ONLINE PETITIONS: </i></b>Petitions are USELESS. Utterly, staggeringly, mathematically verifiably USELESS. Think about it:
will your GOP Representative care that a liberal group dislikes him or her? NO,
they will not. At this very late hour, online action is inaction.<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>POST OR COMMENT ON FACEBOOK DECRYING THE EVIL GOP:</i></b> It’s
preaching to the choir and it accomplishes nothing. Online kvetching is inaction, too.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;">LOOK FORWARD:<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Congress passes a one month stop gap for the debt limit, do NOT stop calling
the GOP. Call them once a day, Monday through Friday. If we stay focused, we
can make a difference. Indeed, we could easily turn the GOP fundraising line into OUR complaint line. Take ownership of it. The country will be all the better for it.</div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-34184888270948365602013-10-02T18:45:00.001-07:002013-10-03T14:26:21.064-07:00Furlough Congress Now<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Furlough Congress Now</i></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The popularity of the Tea Party stands at a breathtaking
22%. Before you cheer, consider this: they shut down the government, pushed support
for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) into the toilet, jeopardized the
implementation of the ACA in a dozen or more states, and gleefully put 800,000
people temporarily (hopefully) out of work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We were utterly incapable of stopping them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>800,000 people are headed for needless financial
stress, the economic recovery is imperiled and we are, in no small part, to
blame. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Two parts to this missive:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
ONE—how did we screw up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
TWO—what do we do now?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A (Not So) Private History of a Campaign
That Failed</i></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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80 of the most conservative Republican Congressman, whose districts
represent a rollicking 18% of the US population, fiercely believe the Democratic
Party is evil and must die. They detest the Affordable Care Act, and their
hatred of President Obama burns hotter than the sun. The government shutdown <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>isn’t about deficits or small government.
Indeed, most of these Congressional districts are rural, and their denizens are
snout deep in agriculture subsidies, federal highway dollars and heaping
helpings of Medicare and Social Security. They don’t hate government, they just
hate the parts of government that don’t personally benefit them.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This ruby red caucus channeled all their bile into an (un)holy quest:
kill the Affordable Care Act at all costs. So, they tied the Affordable Care
Act to their zeal the budget bill, hoping they could “defund” the law by crass
political maneuver.</div>
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<br /></div>
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They started over a year ago, demonizing the ACA at every opportunity,
and launching a relentless (and effective) lobbying campaign aimed at forcing
the less radical wing of the GOP in line. They succeeded in driving support for
the law to dangerous lows, and they shut down the government. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
How did we respond? We didn’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We simply did not. The cardinal rule in any lobbying campaign is to
respond to attacks; especially when they are dripping with misinformation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Why did we miss this? Aren’t we smarter? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Hubris. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
We are arrogant. And in politics, arrogant is, sooner or later, a
synonym for LOSER. Several insidious trends came together to kick our butts:</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"></span></span><b><i>SOLIPSISTIC IDEOLOGUES. </i></b>No, I’m not talking about
the guy on the corner with the foot long beard and the “get gummit out of my
medicare” sign. I’m referring to a subset of the American intellectual left who
believe no law is good enough, or left enough, so why bother?
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br />
Defend the Affordable Care Act? “Puleeeease dahling, it’s “Republican Lite.”
They prefer, of course, single payer, even if most of them cannot even really
define the term. When President Obama doubled fuel economy on US cars, he got
no help from this crew. “CAFÉ Standards, darling, are a joke. Everyone knows
Ford will just cheat.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No stimulus
package was large enough, either. <br />
<br />
When we spend too much time trying to activate these folks to lobby, we fail.
They will go online and scream until dawn. They threaten to move to Canada, but
alas, they never do. Rantings aside, they are toothless. When pressed, most of
these folks admit they’ve done a sum total of NOTHING to stop this shutdown. They
don’t make effective calls to legislators, much less get off the couch, shower,
or dress presentable to show up at a Town Hall Meeting or to a volunteer phone
bank.<br />
<br />
This crew proved a useful ally when Bush was in office—it’s easier for
ideologues to damn, rather than praise and they are damn good at damning. They
are useful during elections, because there are no concrete policies on the
table. But not for lobbying. Ironically, it’s this crew among the GOP (enter,
stage right, the stooge with the “gummit” sign) that kicked us in the shorts
last week. Their crackpots mobilized, ours kvetched to the choir in cyberspace.
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"></span></span><i><b>ONLINE EVANGELICALS:</b></i> No, not Pat Robertson, but
the swath of folks who believe that online activism is the ONLY activism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They send enough email in a week to overheat
a coal powered generator, dripping with hyperbole and tabloidesque subject
lines: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Hey GOP, Repeal Your Own
Healthcare First” “Tell Boehner: Get Off The Golf Course and Get Back To Work.”
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br />
Typically, these are Internet “petitions” and generally collect little more from
“activists” than an email address and maybe a zip code. The Most Exquisitely
Useless and Politically Naïve Petition of the Week Award goes to MoveOn: “ No
Pay for Congress During the Shutdown”</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Dirty little secret: MOST of
these petitions are never delivered to their targets. They are used to build
lists of supporters. Far more cynically put, the real “target” is getting YOUR
email on THEIR list. Even those missives that are delivered fall on deaf ears. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Speaker Boehner doesn’t expect a clearly
left-leaning group to love him. He will be no more moved by a list of “signers”
from MoveOn than Nancy Pelosi upon receiving a pile of hate from the Tea Party
Patriots. <br />
<br />
The disturbing thing is how many on the left ONLY take action via the petition,
making no difference. But the online evangelicals refuse to let go of their
precious petitions. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"></span></span><i><b>THE WAR BETWEEN THE POLITICAL DIRECTOR AND THE DEVELOPMENT
DIRECTOR:</b></i> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ten years or so ago, fundraising
treated email lists with disdain. The direct mail folks got the offices, the
online fundraising guy shared a cubicle with the printer and the paper
shredder.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br />
So, the online list was the domain of the Political Director. These folks were
savvy lobbyists and used the Internet to reach power activists. They’d run
conference calls for online volunteers, teaching how to make EFFECTIVE phone
calls to legislators and how to be EFFECTIVE in the Town Meeting or when penning
a newspaper editorial. And, back in those halcyon days, we even used the email
lists to pick smart folks to bring to DC to lobby Congress.<br />
<br />
Then we learned how to raise real money online. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
After the Dean campaign, everything shifted. Now, the primary target of those action
alerts: what’s in your wallet?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look in
your inbox. How many fundraising appeals did you get on Monday? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The right was focused on calling 10 or 12
swing GOP members in the House, urging them to vote for a shutdown. They ran a
lobby day and brought businessmen and clergy to town. Our team shoved electrons
into cyberspace: “Can you pitch in $3 dollars.” Yes, we need money to be
effective, but we are no longer outspent by the other team. Indeed, more often than not we are spending MORE money, we are just spending it
ineffectively, often at the expense of efficacious activism. <br />
<br />
Fundraising is one of the reasons we flit from issue to issue. Changing up
issues encourages more folks to give. Ironically, we are money driven.<br />
<br />
If you click to “TAKE ACTION” on a picture of Boehner frothing at the mouth,
and after maybe entering your email are taken to the donation page, you are
DONATING, not taking ACTION. That’s fine, to a point. But the political
director lost the civil war. Internet activism is dead; fundraising is king. So,
the Tea Party launched a serious lobbying campaign online, often with
sophisticated targeting and talking points. We raised a few bucks. And we got
our butts kicked.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span> <i><b>THE LAST MINUTE: </b></i>You may have noticed most of
our action alerts occur at the VERY, VERY last minute, typically the day before
or the day of a vote (when it is often too late to matter). In part, this is a
fundraising tactic. Folks respond to political appeals when they are red hot
buttons, and are dominating the news. Trouble is, lobbying is a marathon. The right
kicked the teeth out of support for the ACA; the best organizations on our team
waited 10 months or more to engage. The worst folks in our tent waited until 48
hours before 800,000 people got their asses temporarily shit-canned.<br />
<br />
<i><b>PART TWO: WHAT’S AN ACTIVIST TO DO????</b></i><br />
<br />
At the risk of raising some hackles on my friends list, GET OFFLINE!!!! Stop
replying to Internet petitions. Just STOP. And if you want to give money, do
it, but understand that a donation is not a lobbying action.<br />
<br />
<i><b> CALL LEGISLATORS. </b></i>But understand the difference between a Facebook rant and
a persuasive call. If the staffer you are talking to can tell you are a liberal
or a Democrat, you’ve failed. Focus on the ISSUE, and try to get into the head
of the target legislator. Couch your language in their language: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have lost my pride in America; how can you
turn 800,000 breadwinners out of work because you aren’t doing your job? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>OR: You are spooking Wall Street and damaging
the fragile economic recovery. I cannot support a party that ignores economists
and business leaders. What are you doing?<br />
<br />
Express anger by talking more SOFTLY than is typical. It’s breathtakingly more effective.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The LONGER the call, the better. Ranting
for 30 seconds, spewing profanity and hanging up is the mark of the lobbying
loser. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ask the staffer questions; make
it a conversation. Engage them. “Don’t’
you worry about the people you are putting out of work? How can a compassionate
nation let this happen? This ISN’T Christian”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They will blame Senator Reid, but hit back. “No,
you have a moral obligation to negotiate. Every Congressman does.” The more
rational folks they encounter, willing to take them on, the more effective you
will be. Hit the moral issues hard: “aren’t you concerned as a Christian about what
you are doing to this country?” Don’t BASH religion (ye gods, are we stupid on
this point), that’s the realm of the solipsistic ideologue; make the staff
member consider the issue based upon THEIR sense of religion. Tell them they
are being crappy bosses; senior managers don’t penalize employees when they are
infighting.<br />
<br />
<i><b>DON’T CALL JUST ONCE: </b></i>Call once a day, every day. Vary the offices. But keep
calling. A one-time caller is a loser. Be creative. Ask for various staffers; the
GOP has chosen to tie up the entire federal government, we owe it to those
800,000 folks to cause a little chaos in Boehner’s office, too. <br />
<br />
<b><i>DON’T GO TO VOICEMAIL: </i></b> Never, ever go to voice mail. Go through the switchboard
and ask to speak to a budget staffer. If they refuse to transfer you, call back
3 hours later and ask for the environmental staffer. It doesn’t matter who,
just get PAST the front desk and talk to a living, breathing staffer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the lines are busy, look up the District
Office and call them. BE RELENTLESS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<i><b>SNAIL MAIL:</b></i> Leadership offices inboxes are so stuffed with email it won’t
get a second thought. A well written letter, printed and mailed, has more
impact. Curious but true, the old ways are the best ways. In the final
paragraph, include this language: I am respectfully asking for Representative X
to write me back. This issue is of crucial importance to our Democracy and I
must hear his/her thoughts.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<i><b>MESS WITH THE MOTHERSHIP: </b></i>Call the GOP national party. Their phone lines are set up to raise money.
Engage them in a long conversation; you cost them money. CALL EVERY DAY while
the shutdown is in effect.<br />
<br />
Calling once is a disservice to 800,000 folks going without a paycheck. If we want to win, we need to get VERY, VERY,
VERY busy here.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span> <i><b>WRITE LETTERS TO THE EDITOR:</b></i> Write letters to the editor. People do read
them.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<i><b> DO NOT ENGAGE IN ARGUMENTS WITH CHUCKLEHEADS ON FACEBOOK: </b></i>They are utterly
useless. Just don’t get sucked in.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<i><b> CONTACT THE MEDIA AND CONDUCT OPPOSITION RESEARCH :</b></i> Eric
Cantor’s Facebook page is filled with some of the most partisan filth ever
posted on the Internet by an elected official. LIKE HIM and you'll see. Ask reporters if they’ve seen it, and ask “how can this man negotiate
if this is what he truly believes?” Look at the rhetoric on GOP web sites. <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"></span></span>Go the GOP Members’ Facebook page and pull
quotes from his/her most rabid supporters. Ask the member/staffer “how can you
hop in the political sack with these people? It’s disgusting.</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Talking points (from OFA), to use in conversations with the
GOP. These are good, although it would have been nice to have seen them come
out BEFORE YESTERDAY.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://my.barackobama.com/page/m/55c1b1b8/6c6fb5df/3c129d6d4/19e52ab7/3547530323/VEsH/" target="_blank" title="http://my.barackobama.com/9-Facts-On-Government-Shutdown?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=1+-+The+Top+Nine+Ways+a+Government+Shutdown+&utm_campaign=em13_x_ECON_20131001_ofa_budget&source=em13_x_ECON_20131001_ofa_budget"><span style="color: blue; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">The Top Nine Ways a
Government Shutdown Affects Real Americans</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
<b>1.</b> 800,000 federal employees will go
without pay -- and it's unclear if they'll receive back pay for time missed.<br />
<br />
<b>2.</b> 3.6 million veterans may not receive
benefits if the shutdown lasts over two weeks.<br />
<br />
<b>3.</b> The Centers for Disease Control will
have to stop its flu prevention program, just as flu season begins.<br />
<br />
<b>4.</b> Food safety inspections will scale back
their work, exposing millions to risk.<br />
<br />
<b>5.</b> About nine million moms and pregnant
women will no longer receive nutritional assistance from the Department of
Agriculture's Women, Infants, and Children program.<br />
<br />
<b>6.</b> The Small Business Administration will
be unable to process new loans, potentially slowing new small business growth.<br />
<br />
<b>7.</b> National parks and museums will close
across the country, damaging our travel and tourism industries by millions for
each day the government remains shut down. (Yes, that means the Statue of
Liberty is closed for business...)<br />
<br />
<b>8.</b> Head Start programs across the country
will start closing, ending educational and health benefits for low-income
children.<br />
<br />
<b>9.</b> Disability benefits could be
interrupted, leaving vulnerable Americans without the support they rely on.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-27482041169240485512013-06-01T17:17:00.000-07:002013-06-01T21:12:00.176-07:00IRS Slams and Tea Party Scams<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">No, the IRS should
not target a non-profit organization based upon ideology, and I'm very tired of the
"but Bush did it too" meme too many on the left are spraying all over
the Internet. IRS misconduct is ethically sour and deserves bipartisan
scorn. We believe in government and this Kabuki
Theater damages not just the IRS but, by extension, the fundamental belief that
government can put good in the world.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">But as usual the
media and the politicos need to dig a little deeper to understand the real
problem. The question we should ask of the Tea Party has nothing to do with the
IRS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The question is this: how can we
trust you when you are in league with loons and thieves?<br />
<br />
The genetic mutation on the right, which gives rise to the belief that the only
good government is a business-friendly or business-infused government, presents
a quirk in how the right approaches activism. A progressive would be deeply
offended if the Sierra Club rented its online activist list to someone selling
shoes. When we want to spice up our footwear, we go to Zappos, but we keep politics
and consumerism in separate folders in our inbox. The right has no such boundaries.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />
Newt Gingrich uses his online "action alert" list to peddle Newt
books, videotapes and assorted paraphernalia. The TeaParty.Net rents its list
incessantly to any crackpot with cash in his wallet. But while Newt at least
signs his name to his effluvia, the TeaParty.Net is far less forthcoming. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Enter loons, stage right...<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Led by Arizona
activist Todd Cefaratti, the TeaParty.Net came under fire in 2010 in Arizona when
KPHO, the CBS Phoenix affiliate, found that the organization spent $181,000 on
Facebook and Google ads but virtually nothing to support Tea Party candidates. Cefaratti <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>made his mini-fortune in the reverse mortgage
dodge in Phoenix in the halcyon days of the housing bubble. Reverse mortgages
are a home loan in which the owners, typically retirees, pull equity out of
their home to supplement their retirement income. Some of these loans are
on the up and up and some others, not so much. In far too many cases, hapless
homeowners wind up 80 years old and in danger of losing their castles. <br /><br />Ceraratti's list pushes the reverse mortgage incessantly. Nearly 40 times in 2012, the TeaParty.Net sent out messages peddling a bogus-looking "reverse mortgage calculator." The missive encourages readers to ring up an 800 number in
which operators are presumably standing by to suck the equity out of
unsuspecting seniors' homes. Mr. Cefaratti has yet to disclose his connection to the reverse mortgage lenders, and thus the potential conflict of charity and chicanery, to his non-profit email subscribers.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">One Dr. Crandall
rented the list several times in 2012 to tout his “online heart test,” (don’t
cancel that cardiologist’s appointment just yet).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The understated “Ultimate Survival Now”
company rented the list for this dire warning: “You may not know this, but... FEMA has ordered 420
million survival meals,” representing a “7000 percent increase.” What does FEMA
know that we don’t? Ultimate Survival wouldn't say, but promised to tell us the 37 food items we couldn’t
live without in the pending apocalypse (for the modest fee of $47.97, not for the food, just for the list). The
email ended on an ironically self-aware note:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>“P.S. Not trying to sound like a fear monger.” Even Newsmax rents the
list, promising</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">
</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">to tell us how to pay no income
tax for 2012 (but didn’t elaborate on how that would reduce the deficit, an
issue near and dear to Tea Party hearts). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">
Mr. Cefaratti’s TeaParty.Net list isn’t the only culprit. On occasion, even
activism comes at a price. Last year, the TeaParty.org website offered visitors
to its site the chance to send juvenile “blast faxes” to Congress.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One, a silly <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Don’t Tread on Me</i> flag with a couple of paragraphs of vapid text,
could be sent to all the members of the House and Senate, for the low, low
price of $49.11. The accompanying sales pitch was a mix of Archie Bunker and 3 a.m.
cable infomercial:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">“Just think when a
Congressman opens his fax thinking it will be the usual text, only to find the
image of the <b>Tea Party Flag</b> will shock him [sic] and haunt him until he
is either un-elected or quits.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />
It's not illegal to rent a non-profit's email activist list to a for-profit business, so long as you
follow fair market value rental rules and dutifully report the income from the list rental on tax returns. And yes, you can hyper inflate the costs of useless
Congressional blast faxes if you can find people stupid enough to pay to send them. But it is a legitimate political issue when a non-profit advocacy group rents to scoundrels and when, in most months, the number of consumer scams they are peddling outnumber the number of actual political lobbying alerts. The irony of fleecing your own activists is too rich to ignore. It’s
up to us to put a spotlight on these charlatans. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">We never call the
Tea Party out on this, in no small part because too few of us bother to monitor
the rubbish they distribute on their non-profit lists. In the real world, this is called "opposition research."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the online world, it is dead. I aim to
revive it. The real scandal is not an extra audit from the IRS, but the Tea Party,
who worship business, but seem to be singularly unable to find a legitimate one
to rent their list. Hucksters and thieves have no role to play in non-profit social charity advocacy groups and it is our job to hold them accountable. </span><br />
<br />
#####<br />
You can receive notices about new posts on the Data
Driven Beltway on Twitter @MichaelAgosta1 and as always, if you like the
post, feel free to share it.<br />
</div>
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Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-29418806376489683772013-05-14T15:35:00.001-07:002013-05-14T18:17:52.685-07:00"Cut and Paste" Versus "Lock and Load"<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3195" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<span id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3196">We
may be in for a long, hot political summer; much depends on how long
the GOP manufactured mini-scandals (Benghazi, the Justice Department and
the IRS) dominate the news. Senator Reid and Vice President Biden are
still keeping the
door open for a second vote on gun background checks. They make a great
power couple, and we need them. Tragically, the grassroots have retreated to the
hills, and we are stuck with CUT AND PASTE and LOCK AND LOAD. <br /><br /><i><b>CUT AND PASTE:</b></i><br />
<br />Organizing for Action (OFA), the remnant Obama campaign group that
is now working for legislative advocacy, has taken some flak in the
press for a lackluster performance on the gun bill, the group's first
test of its political clout:</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/cvc8y7o"><span id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3196"><b>http://tinyurl.com/cvc8y7o</b></span></a><span id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3196"> <br /><a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/organizing-for-america-gun-control-90884.html" id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3198" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/organizing-for-america-gun-control-90884.html</a><br /><br />While
I retain a glimmer of hope OFA will get organized for action, there are
some alarming signs not mentioned in those media reports. We need a
group that can build big bipartisan coalitions on issues; OFA, stung by initial
criticism, seems intent on aping the same ineffective tactics that
MoveOn and the other progressive online groups use again and again
and again.<br /><br />OFA collected 1.4 million signatures for background
checks, boxed 'em up and delivered them to Congress. They even made the
predictable little video for the choir: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/ce5frca" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/ce5frca</a></span></div>
<div style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3200" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<span id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3199">Representative Pelosi and Senator Reid gave them the standard issue "thumbs up" tweet. <br /><br />But...so what?<br /><br />Reid
and Pelosi already support background checks. What, in this stunt, was
designed to lobby the half dozen GOP Senators required to pass a
bill in the Senate? 1.4 million signatures sound great; dig a bit and
you'll likely find that not even 1% of those signators are
Republicans. OFA is at its heart a campaign organization. Campaigns are
lone wolves; lobbying requires bipartisan bedfellows. If OFA does not
learn to build actual coalitions (a joint effort by evangelicals or
megachurches who support background checks, or working in cahoots with
America's pediatricians, who are also in our camp), they will make little
headway. <br />
<br />The trillion dollar question: will OFA learn from this loss or will
they morph into little more than a well-funded MoveOn on steroids?<br /><br />OFA is cutting and pasting failed tactics. <br /><br />What should they do?<br />
<br />How about a petition of just <i>1,000</i> signatures, all donors to Senator
Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) explaining, in long, substantive comments from each
donor that she can no longer bank on their checkbooks. <br /><br />Or, how about <i>bipartisan</i> Hill visits,
where 50% of the participants are evangelical ministers who support gun control?<br /><br />Harder to pull off? Yes, but in politics what is easy is rarely effective. <br /><br />And then we have the other team....<br /><br /><i><b>LOCK AND LOAD:</b></i><br />
<br />Gun Nuts are a noxious mix of the anti-intellectual, the uninformed and the angry.<br /><br />That can play to our favor.<br /><br />Enter,
stage right, Adam Kokesh, a Marine who served in the Iraq war. Upon
returning home, he became not just anti-war, but, well, kind of
anti-everything. Over the past few years, he has engaged in a number of
increasingly bizarre stunts. His views are best expressed in his own
words. At a Rand Paul rally in 2008, he took the microphone: "While
it is our responsibility now to resist tyranny civilly, while we still
can, there may come a time when we will say to the powers that be, be it
with your blood or ours we have come to water the tree of liberty … who
will stand with
me?"</span></div>
<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3201" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3202" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
Um, yikes. </div>
<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3203" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3205" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal;">
<span id="yui_3_7_2_1_1368502220558_3204">Kokesh now thinks it a keen
idea to stage a mock "invasion" of Washington, DC on the Fourth of July.
He is using his blog to round up a platoon of misfits, whom he hopes
will march 'round the White House and Congress with big guns
ostentatiously
draped over their shoulders.<br /><br /><a href="http://tinyurl.com/cvc8y7o" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/cvc8y7o</a><br /><br />Trouble
is, DC doesn't allow impromptu Loon Platoons (or anyone else for that
matter) to pack heat in public. He plans to start his march in Virginia
and the DC police plan to meet him at the edge of the bridge.<br />
<br />Staggeringly stupid? Yes. Dangerous? Undoubtedly.<br /><br />But, I have
to give Mr. Kokesh the award for best progressive of the week. Progressive? If Mr.
Kokesh can round up even a few dozen fools the media will cover the
event like the Second Coming. He'll get a lot of press, even if things
remain peaceful. And it will all be bad press.<br />
<br />Online petition drives are stupid. Armed mock invasions are even stupider.<br /><br />I
hope and pray this idiot stays out of my hometown this summer, but if
he chooses to do a sick parody of the March to Selma (which gave us the Voting Rights Act) he may find his stunt is a mega-backfire, giving us federal background checks.</span><br />
#####<br />
You can receive notices about new posts on the Data Driven Beltway on Twitter @MichaelAgosta1 and as always, if you like the post, feel free to share it.<br />
<br /></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-43877720478975426082013-04-30T16:05:00.001-07:002013-05-03T16:16:30.862-07:00Dear Senator<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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Dear Senator:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I was very displeased to learn of your vote against gun background checks
last week. I have not always agreed with you over the years but I have always
respected your integrity. I do not
expect my elected officials to respond to polls, per se, but when 90% of the
nation supports background checks, I
do believe that you should seriously consider the moral implications of
betraying the will of the people.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perhaps a story will help to clarify my views. Just after
graduating college, I tutored high school kids in East New York, in
Brooklyn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One fine spring day, I took
the train out to meet one of my charges.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A block away from the library, I noticed a crowd of people and police. At
the center of attention was my tutee, lying dead on the sidewalk. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We never learned why a 16 year old boy splattered most of
her brain matter over a couple of parked cars. We did learn that the weapon was
purchased at a gun show in Virginia, as part of a huge bulk buy, and was
transported north for sale on the streets of New York for a tidy profit. The
gun runner in question had committed a string of violent crimes, from Maine to
Georgia, and had spent most of his adult life in and out of prison. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thou Shalt
Not Kill is a precept we should take seriously. Checking the background of
an adult before they are allowed to buy a piece of steel finely honed to snuff out a human life seems a reasonable thing to do. It will not bring my tutee back to her family. Your predecessors in
Congress failed on that account, but it just might give another budding
scholar a better lease on life.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I posted about background checks on a blog yesterday, and within
hours the comment thread was besieged by “trolls,” including one commenter who
said:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“Gun grabbers are the reason that 100 million Americans have
300 million guns and billions of rounds of ammo. Keep it up, trample our rights
and we’ll stockpile even more. We know how to use it and unfortunate accidents happen.”<br />
<br />
A second commenter quipped: " The only way you are going to get the gun control you want [background checks] is by civil war." </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These were just two of a half dozen sinister missives my post provoked. All these comments were posted anonymously; the
brazenness of the NRA member stops short at taking adult responsibility
for owning their words in a public forum. I seriously doubt Thomas
Jefferson would call these gentlemen fine upstanding defenders of freedom, would you? The Second
Amendment was written to protect the right of a nation to defend itself
against a tyrannical King, by men of gravity who took a rather dim view
of "unfortunate accidents."</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You have spoken eloquently over your career about American
family values and the Judeo-Christian heritage. How do these individuals'
comments stack up?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not to put too fine a gloss on it, I am puzzled as to why
you feel the need to hop in the political sack with such anti-Christian filth.
It is shameful, and it is a betrayal of the trust voters placed in you.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hate and boorishness are not family values, and stockpiling
“ammo” does not make us free. When we feel the need to leave the house with a
loaded gun, we have already lost our freedom, our human dignity, and our
religion, just as I have irretrievably lost my faith in you.<br /><br />#####<br />
You can receive notices about new posts on the Data Driven Beltway on Twitter @MichaelAgosta1<br /></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-13844282182094458072013-04-28T16:07:00.000-07:002013-05-12T17:29:32.627-07:00Don't Bring an Action Alert to a Gunfight<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The population of New York City is roughly 8.2 million. The combined population
of Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Maine and
Nebraska comes in at 8.6 million. Those conservative states sport 16 Senators,
a veritable tyranny of the tiny, while denizens of the Big Apple share two Senators with the rest of New York state.<br />
<br />
So, why are we shocked that it’s difficult to shepherd a progressive agenda
through Congress? Even Democrats in those small states are going to be pretty
conservative. A national poll may show overwhelming support for gun buyer background
checks but you wouldn’t know it by perusing the poll's North Dakota segment.<br />
<br />
We put gun background checks up for a vote in this environment, and we got
clobbered. <br />
<br />
We are capable of amazing things (the 2008 and 2012 elections) because when we
are good we are very, very good…but when we are bad we are terrible. We mounted
an abysmal lobbying effort on this bill. Once we’d lost, a slew of groups
pounced on Senator Harry Reid. We would’ve won, they argued, if only Senator
Reid had killed the filibuster. Setting aside the inconvenient truth that
Senator Reid never had the votes to end the filibuster, the gun bill moved
forward under the filibuster rule. We all knew we needed 60 votes win—including
a handful of Republican votes. But in examining our lobbying efforts, we sure
didn’t act like we knew it.<br />
<br />
We pretty much did everything wrong:<br />
<br />
1) We waited too long to rally the troops. Because
big liberal email lists love to weigh in on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">every</i>
issue, they jump in on most issues at the very last minute. We waited until a
day or two before the final vote to blast out most of our email alerts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last second appeals seem oh so savvy and
enticingly "urgent," but by the time we were hitting “send” the press
were already reporting the jig was up—we didn’t’ have the votes. <br />
<br />
Dirty little online organizing secret: many same-day-of-the-vote petition
blasts are never delivered to their intended targets, and Senators are seldom truly
undecided on the eve of a vote. Last minute activism is Kabuki Theater. A visit
from a Senate leader might change a wavering Member’s mind at the 11<sup>th</sup>
hour, but partisans putting their name on a petition or shrieking at an 18 year
old Congressional office receptionist will not.</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2)
We cannot persuade a moderate Republican Senator with Democrat activists alone.
The size of a liberal email list is moot: if a group has 5 million names, but
99% of those names are liberal Democrats, that list will be useless. Evangelical
churches came out in support of background checks, but they don’t subscribe to
MoveOn. Senator Heller, the Nevada Republican, who is typically a reliable
“nay” vote on our issues, doesn’t need to hear from MoveOn, he needs to hear
from churchgoing GOP hoi polloi, but those folks didn't call him because we
never bothered to ask them. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 3)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We won the 2012 election by targeting,
targeting, targeting. Team Obama was a sophisticated, data driven crew, with
(like it or not) a complex <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">top-down</i>
strategy to organize thousands of canvassers and phone callers when and where
we needed them. With action alerts, we send a two-sentence blast to everyone,
and make no distinction between folks that have a “swing” Senator and folks
living in safe-vote California. Our major online lists seldom if ever
coordinate efforts or divide turf, and we never try to get more activists in
states like North Dakota, where we desperately need them to sway conservative
Democrats.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">4) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We rely on the online grassroots and
ignore the offline grasstops. To persuade a member of Congress, we need to
couple serious citizen activists with business, religious and community leaders
as well as local elected officials who carry personal weight. Encouraging donors
from the Senator’s last campaign to weigh in is crucial, too, especially for
folks like Heidi Heitkamp, who counted on out of state low donors to win her
seat. Two sentence “sign the petition now” drives don’t build those offline
coalitions.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">5)
We didn't distribute serious talking points to our email subscribers. Indeed,
as much as it pains me to admit, the Tea Party alerts had dramatically more
sophisticated advice for their grassroots. When the tin-foil hat crowd is
out-lobbying us, it’s time for some soul searching.<br />
<br />
6) Instead of organizing a few major events or
protests we delight in encouraging everyone to stage their own, with no
cohesive messaging strategy. We wind up with 30 tiny events in states that
don’t matter. The average number of participants at these microprotests
typically fit comfortably into the backseat of a Prius. We get no press at all
or a scant paragraph buried beneath a story about someone stealing a puppy from
a pet shop.<br />
<br />
7) We rely far, far, far, far, far too much on
the email petition (I’d put in 35 more “fars” but you get the point). Email is
the least effective form of communication to Congress. Surveys of Congressional
staff by the Congressional Management Foundation find that only 4 or 5 percent
of staffers consider email petitions "very important". Staff dismiss
online petitions because they are too numerous; darn near anyone can collect a
few hundred thousand signatures for or against any issue. Petitions are too
simply worded to convey real conviction amongst the signators, and the accompanying
"personalizing" messages our activists tack on are mere Internet snark,
often as uninformed as they are crude. <br />
<br />
Petition-oriented progressive groups often take a spokesperson to visit a few
Hill offices with the mass petition results. They’ll grab a staffer by the
elbow and say "1,000,000 people support gun control," capturing the
affair on fashionably amateur-looking video which they’ll post online. These
stunts are ignored by the press--we've done too many of them, even when the
spokesperson is very compelling (MoveOn used the mother of a Virginia Tech
victim). <br />
<br />
8) When we use email to urge our activists to phone Congress, we send them to
the phones with too little background information and no tips on how to lobby
Republican staff. <br />
<br />
9) Even the best players on our team were
curiously inept. Obama For America (OFA) the President’s much praised campaign
shop, is now a 501c(4) organization designed specifically to lobby for the
President’s agenda, under the new banner "Organizing for Action." Their alerts were better than average (they organized
some real phone banks and had actual substantive talking points). But the
timing!!!! OFA sent out a useless action alert on the day of the vote. Even
worse, mine didn’t hit my inbox until 8:15PM, several hours AFTER the vote.
That’s a rookie error. </span></div>
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10) We encouraged folks from out of state to pile
on. CREDO, on April 17, exhorted its members "Even if you are not
represented by one of these Senators, make a call anyway." This is a
singularly useless tactic, aggravating the very staff we are trying to persuade.
How do you think Senators Boxer or Sanders react when gun toting Nebraskans
call to give them a vitriol-infused piece of their mind? Do we think those
calls persuade them to vote with the NRA?<br />
<br />
11) Very few groups bothered to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">thank</i>
the folks that supported us in the losing effort; the right was all over it,
they take care to give praise when it is due. </span></div>
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12) The Tea Party ramped up an effort to lobby House members (hey, a
bill has to pass both chambers of Congress) in the days before the Senate vote.
We didn’t do crap. I suppose we’d have fired up some alerts on the day of a
House vote, or perhaps the night before.<br />
<br />
In 2012, Mr. Romney learned that his much-vaunted campaign was a clueless mess,
driven by emotion rather than real data in the real world. We are staring down
the same abyss with our allegedly awesome online activist infrastructure. But
do we have the maturity to see it? How many alerts have folks received about
the "next steps" in the gun violence campaign? Any at all? And NOW is
the time to gear up for the Dream Act vote--it's not too early, but if your
inbox is like mine, you are hearing crickets on that issue.</span></div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-90954419361044285232013-04-11T17:58:00.000-07:002013-05-03T16:17:44.482-07:00Demography is Destiny<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;">You’ve seen the stories: the Democrats are destined to have a demographic lock on politics for decades to come, due mostly to a rise in liberalism among young voters and a huge wave of Hispanic immigrants. Online forums are teeming with articles proclaiming a liberal dynasty towering over a GOP that will control little more than Utah and the Deep South. <br /><br />Bloggers are eagerly anticipating two terms of Hillary Clinton, two terms of Chelsea Clinton, and two terms of Malia Obama. But is this true, or hype? Long term predictions tend not to pan out. The Internet lives in the Permanent Present Tense. The web is obsessed with the new, and it’s difficult to do research on anything more than a couple of years old. Files are archived, web sites die and servers shutdown; recent history becomes ancient history. <br /><br />If we turn back the clock just eight years to 2004, we find progressives were in despair. George Bush had just won a second term in the White House, and the future looked bleak. The post election demographic picture was dire; a widely quoted article in the Los Angeles Times by Ronald Brownstein and Richard Rainey pointed out that Mr. Bush won 97 of the nation’s 100 fastest growing counties. Those exurbs and edge cities were, it seemed, the American future, and Democrats need not apply. <br /><br />Democrats were further doomed by championing what many observers believed to be “unsupportable” social issues. When the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled same-sex unions legal, the left cheered but the right had public opinion on their side and they hit back. In 2004, 11 states added Defense of Marriage provisions to their constitutions, defining marital bliss as the sole provenance of ONE man and ONE woman. In each of those states, Mr. Bush enjoyed a hefty voter turnout bounce. Social issues drove votes—straight to the GOP. The first thirty times same-sex unions were on the ballot in the states, our team lost. <br /><br />Today, the GOP “electoral lock” is more of a lock out. The Democrats, it seems, have it made. Hispanic voters turned the southwest blue, younger voters are waxing liberal, and core urban centers are sprouting huge liberal voting constituencies with high powered incomes and graduate degrees. Public opinion on same-sex marriage shifted in our favor. In 2012, provisions supporting same-sex marriage passed in three states and a Defense of Marriage provision was defeated in another. Support for same-sex union ballot measures now comfortably bolster Democratic turnout. <br /><br />Still, our Democratic “lock” relies on some long term demographic trends that may not hold.<br /><br /> 1) <i>Democrats are relying on huge African American voting blocks in key swing states (especially Michigan and Pennsylvania).</i> To carry Michigan, we rely on gigantic victory margins with African American voters in Detroit (Wayne County) to counter massive losses in rural counties. But Detroit’s African American population plummeted from 868,992 in 2000 to 737,943 in 2010. Wayne County’s Democratic voting engine is sputtering. Mr. Obama captured 656,303 votes in Wayne County 2008, but just 595,253 in 2012. Michigan’s African American population is declining for the first time in the state’s history. <br /><br />More than one million blacks in the south were born in the north, and while the nation’s black population grew by 1.75 million between 2000 and 2010 75% of that growth occurred in the south. This shift is large enough to cost us key northern swing states like Michigan, where voting margins between the parties is tight, but is likely not large enough to swing the very red south to blue.<br /><br /><i> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/us/25south.html?_r=0</i><br /><br /> 2) <i>Democrats are relying on sustained Hispanic migration for years to come. </i>Immigration tends to come in waves. My grandparents were part of a wave that populated a huge swath of the Eastern Seaboard with Italian surnames. But immigrant waves tend to crest as quickly as they rise, and Spanish, not Italian, is now spoken on Brooklyn streets and alleys. But there is considerable evidence that Hispanic migration to the United States has peaked.<br /><br />Border crossings by undocumented Mexican nationals, the driving force behind the need for a Dream Act, have plummeted. The number of border patrol agents has exploded, yet the number of Mexican residents caught crossing the border without documentation has dropped, from more than 1 million in 2005 to just 286,000 in 2011.<br /><br />The Mexican born population residing in the United States is in decline. A Pew report from 2011 found “The Mexican born population grew 23% from 2000 to 2005, peaked in 2007 at 12.6 million and stabilized for two years before declining slightly in 2010. In 2011, the Mexican born population in the U.S. decreased still further, to 12.0 million.”<br /><br />While deportations of undocumented Mexican nationals are on the rise, the number who say they will try to return to the US is falling: some 20% now say they will not try to return, compared to just 7% in 2005.<br /><br /><i>http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/</i><br /><br />If immigration reform is enacted, the hot button issue driving Hispanic support for the Democrats will cool. The post-recession economy will have far fewer construction jobs—the industry that fueled the immigrant boom. In the coming years, we may well see an ideological diaspora among Hispanic voters. We forget, in the Permanent Present Tense, Mr. Bush’s significant gains among Hispanic voters in pre-recession 2004. There are potential rifts among Hispanic voters on social issues. Many young Hispanic women are staunchly Catholic and are conflicted on abortion; many young Hispanic men are attracted to political libertarianism or to the aggressive self-reliance touted by the National Rifle Association.<br /><br />Thus far, there are no signs that Hispanic immigration will rescale its pre-recession heights. In 2011, for the first time in US history, more immigrants came to America’s shores from Asia than any other region. Asian immigrants will be less reliably liberal. Vietnamese immigrants in the 1970s tended to vote Republican, as did (and still do) the huge influx of Cuban immigrants who moved to south Florida after the rise of Castro. Recent Asian immigrants include an increasing number from Islamic countries, fleeing the disorder and chaos of the Middle East. These religious newcomers trend more conservative, particularly on key social issues.<br /><br /> 3) <i> Democrats are counting on “reliable” red and blue states holding firm, but allegiances shift over time. </i>Between 1952 and 1988 California backed the Republicans in every election save one (1964). Massive defense plants, fueled by the Cold War, dominated the Los Angeles economy and gave a conservative tint to the political landscape. In the early 1990s massive defense cuts, military base closings and a huge influx of Hispanic immigrants turned California blue and killed the GOP’s vote engine in Orange County. Governor Michael Dukakis lost suburban Los Angeles’s Orange County in 1988 by a whopping 327,000 votes while Mr. Obama fell short by just 86,000 votes in 2012.<br /><br />West Virginia, conversely, was once a bastion of blue, going for the Democrats in all but two elections from 1932 to 1996. In 2000, Al Gore took a principled environmental stand against mountain top coal mining. King Coal glowered, turning the state red. We lost in 2000…and 2004…and 2008…and 2012.<br /><br />So, do progressives have a demographic lock? Probably not. We need to stay electorally diligent, and we need to ignore the overwrought hype of a billion bloggers who think we can “just wait” until we have huge majorities in Congress and a decades-long hold of the White House to pass major legislation. <br /><br />The Permanent Present Tense is dangerous. We have forgotten that Karl Rove’s claims of an electoral lock after the 2004 election were taken very seriously. We’ve forgotten how hopeless the rise of the edge city suburbs looked for our team. Mr. Rove was the political genius of the century in 2004; just eight short years later he is a laughingstock.<br /><br />Hubris will get us nowhere. Demographic changes can be fast and harsh; it’s likely that divided government is here to stay for a while. We need to start lobbying harder NOW, while we still control the White House, moving the ball every inch toward the goal line that we can rather than waiting for the “sure bet” touchdown pass we’ll get in 8 years when we will “inevitably” control all the levers of power. We need to pay attention to the recent success of the NRA. Could guns be the next wedge issue that kills us at the ballot box in 2016? Don’t count it out. Finally, we need to steadfastly continue to build broad based electoral coalitions, and we need to take nothing for granted. Ignore the voices proclaiming the dawn of a golden age; that day may never dawn. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>#####<br />
You can receive notices about new posts on the Data Driven Beltway on Twitter @MichaelAgosta1Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1959597895335767932.post-610568059511124592013-04-03T15:51:00.001-07:002013-04-03T15:51:35.781-07:00Numbers Game<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Consider some recent polling data on support for same-sex marriage:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="background-color: #eeeeee;"><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">CBS News (conducted March 20-24)</span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Support: 53%</span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Oppose: 39%</span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
CNN (conducted March 15-17)</span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Support : 53% </span></i><br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Oppose: 44%</span></i></span></span></span><br />
<br />
Now, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>consider support for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an assault weapons ban:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Quinnipiac University (conducted February 27 - March 4)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Support: 54%</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Oppose: 41%</span></i><br />
<br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></i>
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
ABC News (conducted March 7 – 10)</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Support: 57%</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Oppose: 41%</span></i><br />
<br />
These numbers are close, but on same-sex marriage we are making progress while
we are getting slaughtered on gun control.<br />
<br />
What gives?<br />
<br />
Taking a peek at the efforts of our opponents is instructive. Since January 1,
2013, the four largest Tea Party organizations fired off 48 email alerts on gun
control. Among the frothy subject lines:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">*”Top Secret”
Gun Grabber’s Meeting</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">*Bang Bang</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">*Government
Arming Up</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">*Home
Inspections for Assault Weapons</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: small;">*2<sup>nd</sup>
Amendment Mom Attacked</span><br />
<br />
How many alerts did these organizations send in opposition to same-sex marriage
since January 1?<br />
<br />
ONE.<br />
<br />
The GOP is slowly pushing opposition to same-sex marriage off their to-do
lists. We are winning, by and large, in the absence of much organized
opposition. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>Karl Rove is popping up on network television predicting future GOP presidential
candidates will support same-sex marriage, and in the last month, GOP Senators
Rob Portman of Ohio and Mark Kirk of Illinois joined the ranks of same-sex
marriage proponents. Meanwhile, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has hinted that her
views are "evolving." The dominoes are falling. Mr. Rove understands
that the single most important demographic driving support for same-sex
marriage is AGE. It is more important than party or religious affiliation. In
that CBS News poll cited above, 73% of Americans 18-29 years old support same-sex marriage, compared to just 35% of adults 65 or older. Time is not on the
side of our GOP opponents.<br />
<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Focus on the
Family and a smattering of other right-wing <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>groups do still float anti same-sex marriage
initiatives on state ballots, but we now have enough public support to vote
them down. It is important to note that not all "evangelicals"
actively oppose same-sex marriage. There are divides within religious ranks;
the megachurch movement in particular is pretty agnostic on the issue, choosing
neutrality in this particular Culture War battle.<br />
<br />
On gun control, conversely, we face a dedicated, focused opposition while we
are an amorphous mess. Organization trumps polling numbers. We delight in
mocking the NRA, citing the ridiculous statements by CEO Wayne LaPierre. We
call him "nuts." History will call him "winner."<br />
<br />
This isn't to imply that same-sex marriage is a slam dunk. We are stuck working
on a state by state basis, and it is far easier to legalize same-sex marriage
in Massachusetts than in Alabama. With gun control, it's national, but
demographics don't play in our favor. Liberals are piled up on both
coasts. All those conservative districts between DC and San Francisco keep us
from getting 60 votes in the Senate or a majority in the House.<br />
<br />
To win on gun control, we need to get both noisy and busy. Write letters to the
editor. Urge Senator Harry Reid to bring the assault weapons ban to the floor for a
vote. Write your Congressional representatives. Call the Republican National
Committee and tell them you are finished with their party until they adopt a
rational stand on this very crucial "family values" issue. The odds
are long, but unlike same-sex marriage, those pulling numbers will not grow
stronger over time. Support for reasonable gun control will slip the longer we
go without another horrific slaughter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Do we have
the will to make a difference?</div>
Data Driven Beltwayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00255279413183535848noreply@blogger.com1